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Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Johan Santana Trade Analysis: This One's For You, Pete

Ah, Pete. Young, silly, silly Pete. How's the Twins bandwagon doing these days? Pretty creaky, I'm guessing (and not because there are too many people on it).

Here is what the Twins got for trading Johan Santana to the Mets: (these are minor league stats)

Carlos Gomez: ('06 AA) .281 AVG, .350 OBP, .423 SLG, .773 OPS, 7 HR, 48 RBI (these are from 2006; his 2007 stats are jacked because he played on 4 squads-including the Mets).

Scouting Report: Plus arm and speed, plus fielder, plus base stealer, nice swing. Negatives include too aggressive at the plate, poor situational hitting, no power

Philip Humber:
('07 AAA) 25 GS, 11-9, 139 IP, 129 H, 70R, 21 HR, 44 BB, 120 K, 4.27 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus both project Humber as a MLB #2 or 3 starter, although he has already had Tommy John surgery and is only 27.

Deolis Guerra: ('07 A+) 20 GS, 2-6, 89.2 IP, 80 H, 44 R, 9 HR, 25 BB, 66K, 4.01 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

Plus change, good fastball, big, very young (18 years old). Too tough to say if he has MLB stuff as of this point.

Kevin Mulvey
: ('07 AA/AAA) 27 GS, 12-10, 157.2 IP, 147 H, 74 R, 56 ER (that is a huge discrepancy! Weird.), 4 HR, 43 BB, 113 K, 3.20 ERA, 1.21 WHIP

Fantastic vs. right handers, throws four pitches consistently for strikes. Struggles against lefties. Projects as a #3 or 4 starter.

Interesting stuff when you break it down like this. The media--in all their baseball-knowing glory--talks it up as though the three pitchers are merely throw-ins to go with Gomez. This actually could turn out to be a good trade; those are three young and seemingly talented pitchers.

Anyways, back to Pete. What were your reasons for jumping off the Cubs bandwagon again? The Tribune/shitty ownership and stupid fans.

Well, looks like the shitty ownership followed your ass to Minnesota. So this may be a solid trade, but that said: why in the hell would you make this trade in the offseason? It makes no sense! Why on earth don't you wait and trade Santana around the trade deadline when desperate teams will give up whatever you ask for in order to get pitching help to make a push to the playoffs? I understand that Johan has a no-trade clause, but isn't his whole deal that he wants to go to a contender? So you put him to a contender team at mid-season, and regardless of what happens, he still gets the same contract next year.

And what about stupid fans? Here you go...

From mink0 on the Scout.com Twins message board:

"Im confident the twins made the right deal... The only reason of that is because the twins have made good trades before I.E. the knoblauch & Pirzinski trades. I really dont know much about these prospects but if the twins would trade santana for them, these guys must be good. Once the trade gets completed where would we see these guys in our system? Will gomez be a shoe in for the starting CF job? and what does our starting rotation look like since Santana wont be in it?"

Wow, that is some great deductive reasoning there. "Well, our old GM made good trades in the past, so this trade must be good, too."

So enjoy Twins-dom, Pete. Oh, and did I mention the Cubs went to the playoffs last year? And soon, they won't be owned by the Tribune anymore? Yeah, we still have stupid fans, but at least we won't have both of your big problems anymore.

This is literally your last chance to get back on board the sturdy Cubs wagon. But I swear to God, this train is leavin'!

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Comments:
I think it's great the Twins found a way to trade away the best pitcher in baseball without getting back any of the other team's top prospects.

Oh well, I'm sure there won't be any consequences to tearing out the heart of the club and replacing it with a bunch of question marks and Delmon Young.

As long as Liriano can still throw that nasty slider they should be fine. Oh, right.
 
I wonder how true all those ESPN reports about Bos and NY trades were. There were recognizable, top talent mentioned in those possible trades. If you ask me, I think ESPN makes up a ton of stories regarding trades. Especially trades involving the Red Sox and Yankees. It seems like for the last 3 months ESPN.com has had a story about either the Yankees or Red Sox getting close to finishing a deal for Johan. Yet Min. trades him to the Mets for 2nd tier minor league talent.

Maybe if we start fabricating stories involving two of the biggest franchises in sports, we will get as many hits as the sports leader.
 
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