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Friday, September 18, 2009

Greinke's Case

I real good feeling that the Cy Young is not going to go to Greinke. I also know that it is a little late in the season for a Royals fan to be caring about baseball. I did find this article and it just speaks to how bad the Royals Bullpen and Offence has been this Year.

By the way Greinke being overlooked for a Cy Young this year is much worse the when that D-Bag Eric Chavez in Oakland beat Randa out of the Gold Glove in 2004.


1. He doesn't have enough wins.

Obviously, the Royals have the worst record in the American League, and Greinke personally possesses the worst individual run support in the AL as calculated by total runs scored in all starts. The bullpen has blown four games in which he's left the game in line for the win. The Yankees bullpen has not blown ANY of CC Sabathia's wins. Absolutely no one in the AL, pitcher or hitter, gives his team a better objective chance to win as monitored by WPA.

WPA (win percentage added):

Greinke 5.30, Verlander 4.25, Hernandez 3.53, Sabathia 2.52, Halladay 1.73

WPA's a little nebulous to me, so here's a breakdown by start of how well each starter kept his team in the game by starts (5+ runs = bad, 0-2 runs = good).

Starts allowing 5+ runs:

Greinke 3, Halladay 6, Verlander 7. Hernandez 7, Sabathia 8

Starts allowing 0-2 runs:

Greinke 21, Hernandez 19, Verlander 15, Sabathia 15, Halladay 14

Wins lost due to blown saves:

Greinke 4, Hernandez 3, Verlander 2, Halladay 1, Sabathia 0

Run support/9 IP:

Greinke 4.71, Hernandez 5.73, Halladay 6.14, Verlander 6.21, Sabathia: 7.80

Being more than a full run behind the next guy in run support with more wins lost to blown saves than anyone is like having to run two extra miles in the marathon more than everyone else in the competition.

2. His W/L % isn't very good.

In addition to receiving the worst run support in the AL, Greinke is also extremely unlucky. He has left eight games trailing, and the Royals were not able to take him off the hook in any of them. In contrast, Felix Hernandez, despite pitching for the team that has scored the least runs in the league, has left twelve games trailing and been taken off the hook on seven occasions, including two in which he got the win. Zack's also the only pitcher in the majors who has more than one outing where he gave up one run in seven or more innings and lost. On top of all that in his 30th start, he received a lead in the first inning for the first time all year.

Leads in the first inning:

Greinke 1, Hernandez 4, Sabathia 5, Verlander 5, Halladay 6

Baseball Prospectus's LUCK index measures the difference between expected W-L (calculated from pitcher performance) to actual W-L record:

Zack Greinke LUCK: -4.08, Team W-L: 59-87

Roy Halladay LUCK: 0.43, Team W-L: 66-80

Felix Hernandez LUCK: 2.99, Team W-L: 76-71

Justin Verlander LUCK: 3.25, Team W-L: 78-68

CC Sabathia LUCK: 6.07, Team W-L: 94-53

Hey, isn't it funny that luck correlates directly to team performance?

No decision breakdowns by games left ahead (A), tied (T), or behind (B):

Greinke: 3 A, 5 T, 0 B, ERA: 1.95

Hernandez: 2 A, 3 T, 5 B, ERA: 2.15

Verlander: 2 A, 2 T, 3 B, ERA: 4.63

Halladay: 1 A, 3T, 1 B, ERA: 2.73

Sabathia: 0 A, 4 T, 3 B, ERA: 3.71

All those other guys have bailed out by their teams when they've left the game behind, and they all have fewer games blown by the bullpen. Greinke has no such luxuries

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Tuesday, September 08, 2009

Woodhead Waived By Jets; Picked Up By Mystery Team?

Long time, no posty. Hi friends.

So Danny Woohead had quite the past few days. Rushes for the most yards in an NFL preseason game since the 90's, plus adds a couple of touchdowns. Makes final Jets roster. Less than 24 hours later, is waived by the Jets.


Or is it?

According to Pro Football Talk:

The Jets became one of the last teams to announce their practice squad, and the list is notable for a name not on it: preseason cinderella running back Danny Woodhead, who made the team Saturday, only to get waived Sunday.

This is likely good news for Woodhead and bad news for Jets fans that took a shining to the kid, because Woodhead has probably been claimed on waivers elsewhere.

The question is, of course, who is this mystery team? My only hope is that it is a team that plays the Jets, only in that Bill Callahan can be reminded YET AGAIN that he screwed up passing on this kid at Nebraska.

(Er, that's not my only hope. My *main* only hope is that he is picked up by the Bears. After that, though, the above paragraph remains true.)

Good luck with your new team, Danny. And regardless how it turns out, you've always made us Platters proud.

(P.S.: The "quote box" function on Blogger sucks my butt.)

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