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Friday, September 18, 2009

Greinke's Case

I real good feeling that the Cy Young is not going to go to Greinke. I also know that it is a little late in the season for a Royals fan to be caring about baseball. I did find this article and it just speaks to how bad the Royals Bullpen and Offence has been this Year.

By the way Greinke being overlooked for a Cy Young this year is much worse the when that D-Bag Eric Chavez in Oakland beat Randa out of the Gold Glove in 2004.


1. He doesn't have enough wins.

Obviously, the Royals have the worst record in the American League, and Greinke personally possesses the worst individual run support in the AL as calculated by total runs scored in all starts. The bullpen has blown four games in which he's left the game in line for the win. The Yankees bullpen has not blown ANY of CC Sabathia's wins. Absolutely no one in the AL, pitcher or hitter, gives his team a better objective chance to win as monitored by WPA.

WPA (win percentage added):

Greinke 5.30, Verlander 4.25, Hernandez 3.53, Sabathia 2.52, Halladay 1.73

WPA's a little nebulous to me, so here's a breakdown by start of how well each starter kept his team in the game by starts (5+ runs = bad, 0-2 runs = good).

Starts allowing 5+ runs:

Greinke 3, Halladay 6, Verlander 7. Hernandez 7, Sabathia 8

Starts allowing 0-2 runs:

Greinke 21, Hernandez 19, Verlander 15, Sabathia 15, Halladay 14

Wins lost due to blown saves:

Greinke 4, Hernandez 3, Verlander 2, Halladay 1, Sabathia 0

Run support/9 IP:

Greinke 4.71, Hernandez 5.73, Halladay 6.14, Verlander 6.21, Sabathia: 7.80

Being more than a full run behind the next guy in run support with more wins lost to blown saves than anyone is like having to run two extra miles in the marathon more than everyone else in the competition.

2. His W/L % isn't very good.

In addition to receiving the worst run support in the AL, Greinke is also extremely unlucky. He has left eight games trailing, and the Royals were not able to take him off the hook in any of them. In contrast, Felix Hernandez, despite pitching for the team that has scored the least runs in the league, has left twelve games trailing and been taken off the hook on seven occasions, including two in which he got the win. Zack's also the only pitcher in the majors who has more than one outing where he gave up one run in seven or more innings and lost. On top of all that in his 30th start, he received a lead in the first inning for the first time all year.

Leads in the first inning:

Greinke 1, Hernandez 4, Sabathia 5, Verlander 5, Halladay 6

Baseball Prospectus's LUCK index measures the difference between expected W-L (calculated from pitcher performance) to actual W-L record:

Zack Greinke LUCK: -4.08, Team W-L: 59-87

Roy Halladay LUCK: 0.43, Team W-L: 66-80

Felix Hernandez LUCK: 2.99, Team W-L: 76-71

Justin Verlander LUCK: 3.25, Team W-L: 78-68

CC Sabathia LUCK: 6.07, Team W-L: 94-53

Hey, isn't it funny that luck correlates directly to team performance?

No decision breakdowns by games left ahead (A), tied (T), or behind (B):

Greinke: 3 A, 5 T, 0 B, ERA: 1.95

Hernandez: 2 A, 3 T, 5 B, ERA: 2.15

Verlander: 2 A, 2 T, 3 B, ERA: 4.63

Halladay: 1 A, 3T, 1 B, ERA: 2.73

Sabathia: 0 A, 4 T, 3 B, ERA: 3.71

All those other guys have bailed out by their teams when they've left the game behind, and they all have fewer games blown by the bullpen. Greinke has no such luxuries

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