Friday, January 04, 2008
Pete's NFL Picks
It's that time of year again, and there is nothing quite like riding a hot streak into the playoffs.
That's right, I have not lost a bet in 2008. After suffering my last setback (congrats EZT) with Clemson on New Year's Eve, I went 3-0 on New Year's Day, then hit West Virginia and Kansas the last two nights. Let's keep this train-a-rollin', folks. On to the picks:
SEATTLE (-4) over Washington
The Seahawks get the check here (that's what Hank Goldberg always says) even though I am rooting for the Redskins. I love Joe Gibbs and think he is a fantastic coach, but I can't back Todd Collins on the road against the toughest crowd in the NFC. I also like the under here. The Seahawks have mailed it in the last few weeks but I like their playoff experience at home against a Redskins team that had to play as hard as they could the last month just to get here. I don't love this play however and may only take the under.
PITTSBURGH (+2) over Jacksonville
Why? Because this has the makings of a classic trap game. Look at that line again. They are begging you to take Jacksonville. Personally, I will take the more playoff experienced team, with the better, more experienced QB, at home on a crappy field, with the raucous crowd. I'm loading up on this game, and going contrarian and fading the public. Sorry Mayfield.
TAMPA BAY (-2.5) over NY Giants
I know the Giants are the popular pick here but Tampa is simply a better team overall. Garcia doesn't take sacks, which will neutralize the G-Men pass rush and Earnest Graham is going to have a big day. Tampa does concern me by not having a lot of explosiveness if they aren't getting the ball to Galloway, which they aren't. If they fall behind, they won't come back. I also think Jacobs will have a big game, but we all know Eli is turning the ball over, it's just a question of when, and to what level of devestation. Again, I really like this play.
Tennessee (+9) over SAN DIEGO
I waffled on this game, but I simply had to decide that Norv Turner and Philip Rivers cannot cover 9 points. By the way, if Kerry Collins starts, that means that both he and Todd Collins will be starting NFL playoff games. I don't know if this can even be processed by my brain. I also disagree that this is better for the Titans, I mean we're talking about Kerry Collins here. I have no idea what's going to happen here. The Sports Guy said that the Titans are basically a worse San Diego, and he's right. Jeff Fisher is smart though, and maybe he can come up with something. If I am having a good week I may not even play this one. Or just play the under. Basically, I picked Tennessee but the last paragraph is fairly pro San Diego. Whatever.
Good luck to all, and we will be back next week regardless with the divisional games. Oh, and I will be watching these somewhere with bar food if anyone cares to join me.
That's right, I have not lost a bet in 2008. After suffering my last setback (congrats EZT) with Clemson on New Year's Eve, I went 3-0 on New Year's Day, then hit West Virginia and Kansas the last two nights. Let's keep this train-a-rollin', folks. On to the picks:
SEATTLE (-4) over Washington
The Seahawks get the check here (that's what Hank Goldberg always says) even though I am rooting for the Redskins. I love Joe Gibbs and think he is a fantastic coach, but I can't back Todd Collins on the road against the toughest crowd in the NFC. I also like the under here. The Seahawks have mailed it in the last few weeks but I like their playoff experience at home against a Redskins team that had to play as hard as they could the last month just to get here. I don't love this play however and may only take the under.
PITTSBURGH (+2) over Jacksonville
Why? Because this has the makings of a classic trap game. Look at that line again. They are begging you to take Jacksonville. Personally, I will take the more playoff experienced team, with the better, more experienced QB, at home on a crappy field, with the raucous crowd. I'm loading up on this game, and going contrarian and fading the public. Sorry Mayfield.
TAMPA BAY (-2.5) over NY Giants
I know the Giants are the popular pick here but Tampa is simply a better team overall. Garcia doesn't take sacks, which will neutralize the G-Men pass rush and Earnest Graham is going to have a big day. Tampa does concern me by not having a lot of explosiveness if they aren't getting the ball to Galloway, which they aren't. If they fall behind, they won't come back. I also think Jacobs will have a big game, but we all know Eli is turning the ball over, it's just a question of when, and to what level of devestation. Again, I really like this play.
Tennessee (+9) over SAN DIEGO
I waffled on this game, but I simply had to decide that Norv Turner and Philip Rivers cannot cover 9 points. By the way, if Kerry Collins starts, that means that both he and Todd Collins will be starting NFL playoff games. I don't know if this can even be processed by my brain. I also disagree that this is better for the Titans, I mean we're talking about Kerry Collins here. I have no idea what's going to happen here. The Sports Guy said that the Titans are basically a worse San Diego, and he's right. Jeff Fisher is smart though, and maybe he can come up with something. If I am having a good week I may not even play this one. Or just play the under. Basically, I picked Tennessee but the last paragraph is fairly pro San Diego. Whatever.
Good luck to all, and we will be back next week regardless with the divisional games. Oh, and I will be watching these somewhere with bar food if anyone cares to join me.
Labels: Good luck to me, NFL Playoffs, Sports Wagering
Comments:
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I’m glad you did what noone on ESPN is doing and went against the Jags. It always makes me nervous when everyone is loading up on my team. As far as your pick, I disagree. I don’t think the Steelers are that good.. Jax dominated them 3 weeks ago in Pittsburgh and that was when the Steelers had Willie Parker. And look at their schedule, they are 3 - 4 over their last 7 games and that is including a 3 point home victory over the Dolphins. Yikes. I think the Jags win in dominating fashion leaving the rest of the AFC scared shitless to face off against the two headed horse that is Freddy Taylor and MJD. If you want to stay undefeated in the new year, you might want to hold off on betting against Jax.
I have to agree with Mayfield on this one. The Jags don't turn the ball over and the Steelers who rely on the violent run game are missing the key person. Crappy field or not the steelers will have to play their nuts off to take this one.
you guys are rubes. mark my words that this one is a trap. every bettor in america is watching and hearing the same shit on espn as you are espousing while vegas is building another casino the size of cherry county.
I have to agree with Pete. This might be one of the bigger trap games I've seen in a wild card game. Pittsburgh isn't as helpless as the douchebags on ESPN would have you believe. I think Big Ben and the defense will get it done at Heinz.
I really think Pitt wins....they are used to playing on that crap shoot of a field...that is probably worth 2 TD's. The gambler in me is all over the Steelers in the postseason.
Also, i will be banging Tampa Bay like a screen door in a hurricane. Betting against Eli Manning is the best odds in a casino.
Also, i will be banging Tampa Bay like a screen door in a hurricane. Betting against Eli Manning is the best odds in a casino.
You guys are insane. You don't get dominated the way the Steelers were dominated just a few weeks ago and magically get better.
Look at what happened on Dec. 16
Total Net Yards:
Jax 421 Pit 217
Time of Possession:
Jax 37:39 Pit 22:21
And this game was played in Pittsburgh, in shitty weather, and against a Steelers team that still had their best offensive player.
Look at what happened on Dec. 16
Total Net Yards:
Jax 421 Pit 217
Time of Possession:
Jax 37:39 Pit 22:21
And this game was played in Pittsburgh, in shitty weather, and against a Steelers team that still had their best offensive player.
if it was as bad for pete this weekend as it was for me...i feel really bad for him.
Speaking of that, Pete...sorry i didn't get your call returned friday night, we had a game and i didn't get it until late. Probably was best, i would have told you to double all your bets.
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Speaking of that, Pete...sorry i didn't get your call returned friday night, we had a game and i didn't get it until late. Probably was best, i would have told you to double all your bets.
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