Two straight weeks of NFL posts and I feel giddy. While it wasn't exactly a profitable weekend, things could have been substantially worse. We live to play on, and thankfully there is a whole load of material to get us through it. Like Guns N Roses, it's time for a comeback. Like LL Cool J, the best gay rapper alive, don't call it a comeback either. A few things to blow through:

--Call me a conspiracy theorist or whatever, but I am firmly entrenched in the camp that the Steelers-Chargers game was absolutely fixed. Between the time the play ended and the time that the score was changed was certainly enough time for someone in Vegas to call someone in the NFL and get this done. Consider these facts:

1. For some reason, this was the most heavily wagered-on game of the year, according to Vegas sources.
2. This was a $72 million dollar swing-in favor of the books.
3. The NFL (as well as the NCAA, MLB and the NBA) consults with sports-books all the time to keep an eye out for potential shady business.

My point is this: if you were Vegas and you stood to make $72 mil with a Chargers cover, you had contact with high ranking NFL people, and you saw it vanish on a controversial play, you wouldn't at least try to save your ass?

If you're the NFL, and you try like a bastard to avoid anything even remotely acknowledging gambling despite that an estimated 1/3 of your ratings come from gamblers, you wouldn't have incentive to appease one of your main revenue streams? I'm not sayin' I'm just sayin'.

--Tony Romo taking a homeless guy to get the movies is, in a word, awesome. I wouldn't take a homeless guy to the movies, and I'm not the All-Pro QB of the most popular team in the sport with what some (not me) consider to be an amazing looking girlfriend with a really creepy dad. I simply can't hate this guy anymore. I can't. I try. Things went downhill when he helped a couple change a tire on the side of the road after a game. Now this. Fucking guy. You can't make this shit up. I'm sure some cynics will say that these are all stunts, but until proven I'm in the camp that says he's just a genuinely awesome guy. It's not like there's a camera crew making sure every news outlet gets these stories.

--Phil Savage, Browns GM, responding, during the actual Browns-Bills game, to an upset Browns fan: "Go root for Buffalo. Fuck you."

After the Browns season this year, and the cruel reality of me not being able to watch the best Browns game of the year on Monday, nothing would surprise me at this point. Savage could have gone to the emailer's house, ball-gagged him, and banged the guy's wife and I wouldn't have done more than a shoulder shrug at this point. There are, of course, many problems with the Savage-fan discourse, but here's why I'm upset:

1. It was during the game! Why is the Browns' GM even on a computer during a game? Was he watching the ESPN Gamecast like I fucking was? This asshole, who is responsible for all personnel moves for my beloved Browns, is fucking reading message boards while Willie McGinest and Andra Davis (combined age: approximately 78)apply for Medicare and chase after Trent Edwards in wheelchairs. Unbelievable.

2. If I were going to suggest this fan support another team, shouldn't it be a team that is substantially worse than you? That leaves the Lions, Bengals and Chiefs to choose from.

3. If you're going to be a bear, be a grizzly. Phil Savage should channel Randy "Macho Man" Savage and start dishing out flying elbows, and snapping into Slim Jims.

Onto the picks:

RAVENS (-1) over Eagles

I did not even get into the Donovan McNabb story, but I tend to agree with a Whitlock column I read today about how not knowing games could end in ties can't possibly make him a less effective QB. What makes him a less effective QB is that he doesn't have much talent and he works for a stubborn organization.

Also, I've heard rumblings about the NFL needing to eliminate ties and go to a college OT. While I love the college OT, I also love quirky things in sports like pro football games ending in ties once every five years or so. That's awesome. I tied a fantasy game earlier this year and it was much better than if I had won. I bet the Eagles don't feel that way.

Also, take the Ravens.

DOLPHINS (+1.5) over Patriots

In honor of Greg Camarillo, my favorite Italian-Mexican-American receiver, getting a 3 year contract extension, I'm riding his boys this week. I think they are a better team overall than the Pats, they kicked their ass in Foxboro BEFORE New England's entire team went down and they will win a crucial divisional game here. I was dead right about them last week against the Raiders, and I will be here, as well.

Jets (+5) over TENN

The Titans have to not cover one of these, right? Umm, right? I don't think these teams are that far apart actually, and I like the Jets to make it come down to a field goal, one way or another.

Colts/Chargers Under 49

Did Vegas think it was 2006 or something. I'm either walking into one enormous trap or this is absolutely free money.

SAINTS (-1) over Packers

John Q. Public is going to love Green Bay here, while I'm going to sit back and let him bet the Packers into being favorites and come down on the side of the explosive home team getting points indoors at home on Monday night. Green Bay would beat this team 7 or 8 times out of 10 on a neutral site, but this is a tough spot for 'em.

Now, some over/unders for The Deuce's wedding:

The Deuce (1.5) collars on tux outfit
People (33.5) who see a picture of NPGage's new cats
Whiskey cocktails (5.5) consumed by first-ballot wedding Hall of Famer OC, obviously this total does not include beer
Scale from one to 10 on offensiveness of GA's speech (-5.5) (And I'm absolutely taking the unders. Consider that a challenge, GA.)

Congrats, The Deuce.

Labels: ambiguously raced receivers, fixes, Pete's NFL Picks, Sports Wagering, The Deuc

After reading the word 'economy' approximately 27 times on the blog this week, it seemed appropriate to talk about the economics of my own personal sports wagering. It has been a very profitable year up to this point for me and hopefully for you, too.

Particularly striking have been covers by very big NFL underdogs. I'm instituting this rule for the rest of the year: If a team is a 10 point or more dog and is not named the Detroit Lions, fire away.

Yesterday, the Jets narrowly avoided, along with the Miami-Va Tech game, two excruciating backdoor covers on one Thursday night. That would have been a terrible way to start the week, but instead I ended up 1 unit.

Given the unexpectedly crappy slate of college games this week, let's get to the NFL picks for this Sunday:

FALCONS (-6.5) over Broncos
The Broncos are one of those teams this year that makes the NFL so unpredictable. Against a team like Cleveland, they have enough firepower to overcome their ungodly sucktastic defense and win some 38-35 type games. Against a team like Atlanta, that can run the ball and has a smart QB, they are in for a double digit loss. I'm not sure why Vegas hasn't had to inflate The ATL's lines yet, but thanks. Also, Atlanta just dismantled, I mean really kicked the shit out of, a Saints team last week that is basically the NFC equivalent of the Donkeys. Atl 28, Denver 17

CHIEFS (+5) over Saints
Vegas is banking on the fact that the public hasn't watched either of these teams in the last three weeks, or that Joe Public is simply looking at the Chiefs win/loss record and taking the team with all the superstars. These are the kind of spots to look for. The young Chiefs are playing well, and it will start to pay off, and I think it starts today. Plus, as A. will attest, Tyler Thigpen is my man. Chiefs 31 Saints 28


GIANTS (-7) over Ravens
This one almost feels like a trap, but there is absolutely no way I'm expecting Joe Flacco, who has been decent, to show up in the Meadowlands and take it to the Giants' defense. I thought there was no way the GMen should have been dogs last week in Philly, so I bet them and bought a 1998 Cavalier. The GMen are playing hard all year and not at all resting on their considerable laurels, and I see no way that Flacco can dissect the intricacies of their pass defense on the road. If it's not a trap, it's a gift. NYFG 24 Baltimore 6

Raiders (+11) over DOLPHINS
With apologies to A., I just don't think that the Dolphins are going to really run it up here. They have a good offense, but it's not exactly built around running up scores. I know the Raiders are terrible, but about one in every four games they show up and spoil the fave party. I'm not saying they win outright, I just don't think the Dolphins are going to need to, or want to, blow this team out. Miami 20 Oakland 14

JAGUARS (+3) over Titans
If Jacksonville has any pride, they catch Tennessee on an off week with not much to play for and blow their doors off. The Bears showed they could stop the Tennessee run, and I liked what I saw last week from MoJo and the Jags. I'm calling for the upset. Jacksonville 23 Tenn 17

Leans toward: Redskins, Steelers, Seahawks, Rams, Vikings, Bengals, Colts, Lions, Bills

Good luck to all, apologies for lack of humor in this post, time constraints.

Labels: Adam Peterson, Pete's NFL Picks, Sports Wagering

Welcome back, sports fans. We know you've missed Tunnel Walk. Tunnel Walk has missed you too, baby. But now Tunnel Walk is back and promises never to leave your side again. It's just that Tunnel Walk gets so scared when there's no football. And a scared Tunnel Walk is a dangerous Tunnel Walk.

So NU finds itself facing the vaunted VaTech Hokies. What's a Hokie? Don't feel embarassed, only Tunnel Walk and Jim Druckenmiller knew before this week. A Hokie is simply a loyal Virginia Tech fan. It comes from a cheer created in 1896 when Virginia Agricultural and Mechanical College changed its name to Virginia Polytechnic Institute. So where does the turkey come from? The HokieBird is based on the nickname "the gobblers" granted in 1908. There are many theories as to where this came from. One is that the football team would respond to a crowd cheer by gobbling. Another is that an observer commented that the team "gobbled" their post-game meal. One theory held by some Tunnel Walkers is that Tech football team gobbles something else. Hey yo! Zing!



Top 5 Ways to Tell it is a Big Game in Memorial Stadium

1. Even the people with oxygen tanks stand up occasionally
2. You are so close to the person sitting next to you, you could inadvertently conceive a child
3. Clapping is so out-of-sync it becomes in-sync
4. Coach Ekeler kills scout team linebacker in pre-game revelry
5. Tom Osborne clips coupons, reads Nicholas Sparks novel, makes Cream of Wheat, eats Cream of Wheat, sips hot tea, levitates


The Recruit Files:

Already Committed: Cody Green, QB. 6-4, 220lbs, Dayton, TX. Already the bell cow of the class, Green seems to be the epitome of the Balanced QB if we were playing NCAA 09. A converted RB (he wore the #21 jersey before switching to a more quarterbackly #7), Green can burn you with his feet. However, it's Watson's "multiple" offense that Green is being groomed to run so you know Green must be quick with the draw. Green will graduate in December and presumably be in Lincoln in time for Spring ball. Pat Witt did that a couple of years back and it hasn't hurt him any. Rivals rates Green as the 10th best dual-threat QB (4*) and Scout has him as their 5th overall QB and gives him 5 stars. He seems like a good kid who should have a bright future with the Cornhuskers, but so did Josh Freeman, and Harrison Beck, and Curt Dukes, and Allan Evridge, and Carlyle Holiday, and Carl Crawford.

Wishlister: Gabe Lynn, CB. 6-1, 180lbs, Tulsa (Jenks), OK. Gabe Lynn has been on the sidelines of more Nebraska games in the past two years than any of us...ever. Gabe Lynn is also Phillard's half-brother. Gabe Lynn is a top-5 corner for the class of 09. The first two items on the list combined with number 3 equals a spot on this week's Wishlist. Lynn has stated that he wants to see playing time quickly and despite the logjam of young corners for NU, the Tunnel Walk believes Lynn has the talent to see playing time as a true freshman. That said, with this staff's restraint burning unnecessary redshirts (see: Compton, Will; Steinkuhler, Baker), anything can happen. Despite having somewhere in the range of 50 scholarship offers, the race for Lynn's signature on Signing Day really comes down to Nebraska and Oklahoma with OU in the lead. All along, Lynn has played the role of the uninterested when it comes to NU. This could either mean that he doesn't want his relationship with Phillard to block other schools from recruiting him or it could simply mean he just isn't that into NU.

Top 5 Pies of the Fall

1. Pumpkin
2. Baked peach (this is due to the delicious late-season Colorado peaches)
3. Pecan
4. Sour cream and raisin
5. Humble (which may come in the form of Missouri, Oklahoma, or both)

A Look Back at Excitednesses and Concerns

Dan Titchener. Tunnel Walk wanted him to be better than he has been. Averaging 38.6 yards per punt, Dan the Man only has to add about 8 yards to each of his boots in order to match the single season record. You can do it!
Bo Pelini. He's still undefeated as head coach of the University of Nebraska.
Khiry Cooper. Well, he's still on the team.
Walk-Ons. Unless you're related, you're a big, fat liar if you knew what jersey number Lance Thorell wore prior to the NMSU game. Many of his teammates don't even know his first name. Matt O'Hanlon (who was granted an extra year of eligibility earlier this year) and Hunter Teafatiller were each once walk-ons who've since earned scholies and they've done better than expected. Yay!
Ricky Redshirting Henry. Tunnel Walk believes it says volumes about the depth of the offensive line when a player that both coaches and players targeted as an impact player has the ability to utilize a redshirt year. Big ups to you, backup guards.
The Running Back Competition (Yet to be determined?). Tunnel Walk supposes this could go either way. Some will say that to truly establish a ground attack, a team must give it's lead horse enough carries to settle into a rhythm. Others (such as mythological dog Cerberus) say, "Three heads are better than one."
Prognosticators' Optimism. This has nearly gotten out of hand. Not that many expected NU to be anything less than 3-0 entering Saturday's matchup with VaTech., but the amount of sunshine being blown needs to be paused until at least next Sunday.
Lack of DT Depth. What did Tunnel Walk say about Jared Crick? And to be fair, what did Tunnel Walk say about Ndamukong Suh and Ty Steinkuhler? Following a season in which both Suh and Steinkuhler were at best just whelming, each have been auditioning for Guns of the Navarone: The New Class.



Where are You Now, Thunder Collins?

Labels: Nebraska Football, peaches, Sports Wagering, The Tunnel Walk

PITT +1 over Iowa (really like this one)

MICH ST -8 over Notre Dame (love this one)

Wyoming +28 over BYU (letdown special)

AUBURN +3 over Lsu (weird line, Steven J. Public will love LSU and get burned)

Georgia -7 over ASU (they need to look good, and they have the talent)

Labels: Cleveland, Pete's NFL Picks, Romeo Crennel, Sports Wagering

Well, not really, but I do want to take a few to discuss the news of the day, which is quite obviously Brett Favre's alleged comeback. Also, read this to get in the July 4th mood. I found it quite striking some of the differences between Big Daddy Drew's breakdown and what ours would look like, although they both include The Hold Steady.

Anyway, back to the Favre thing. Most of the reaction I have seen from my boy MJD and various blog commenters is broken down as such:

1. How could he do this to the Packers?

2. Enough already.

3. Just go away.

My response to this, generally, is as such:

1. Are you fucking serious?

I mean, what is really the downside here, for all parties involved? Favre had his best year in a decade last year and can clearly still bring it. His family wants him to play. John Madden can emerge from his coma (wait, scratch that). His team is good (more on this later). His legacy is intact. If he has the desire (I refuse to call it an "itch"), than he has very little to lose and if the Pack win the Super Bowl, a hell of a lot to gain.

For the Packers, they get a living legend back for one more year. They can win the Super Bowl with Favre, but not with the recently clean-cut Aaron Rodgers. They are loaded at every position except QB, and immediately become the favorite in the NFC with Favre. The only thing they stand to lose is the psyche of Aaron Rodgers, which is probably already destroyed from the last four years of this. The team, according to Al Harris, my 2nd favorite NFL player, wants him back.

For the NFL, they get the most popular player of my lifetime and possibly NFL history to lace them up for a year. It's a great storyline heading into camp. As it is, all they've been talking about is rookie salaries, Pac-Man Jones and Chad Johnson. I think they would love this angle.

The age we live in is so snarky and cynical that all the joy has been sucked out of sports. Even 15 years ago, when MJ came out of his gambling suspension and unretired, he was welcomed back with open arms. I understand that one can grow tired of the mythic proportions and attention thrown Favre's way over the years, I can agree that he has been elevated by the likes of Madden to ridiculousness. I've been known to engage in the type of cynicism and snarkiness when it comes to sports but it's mindboggling in this case. What about Favre coming back isn't better for the NFL or its fans? Who really loses if he plays? If you hate him, you get to root for Jared Allen or Tommie Harris to paralyze him. If you like Favre, you get one more year to enjoy the shit that he does. If you like the Packers, you're team is instantly better. Anyone disagree?

However, he is a legend, he is interesting, polarizing, an old school hero like Ruth, Payton, or Mantle, immortal and down to earth at the exact same time, and the face of the NFL for the last 15 years, and rightfully so. Favre playing is good for the Packers, NFL fans, and the NFL itself.

What am I missing?

Labels: Brett Favre, John Madden, soapbox, Sports Wagering

As Crash Davis once said, "Strikeouts are boring. Besides, they're fascist." While this is unabashedly true, no sporting event encapsulates what The Framer's of the United States conjured up from a democracy standpoint while drafting The Constitution quite like what transpires on the First Saturday in May at Churchill Downs each year.

For a thoroughbred to participate, the steed must meet one criteria: it has to be three years old. Females such as Ruffian, males such as Winning Colors (1988), and geldings (castrated males such Funny Cide) have all not only ran for the roses, they have ran away with them. Thomas Jefferson would have no doubt been stricken that his agrarian nation of independent farmers would have produced not only fields of copious grain, but also opportunity for all creeds, or at least all ponies. Susan B. Anthony clearly looked to inspiration for women's suffrage from Kentucky, where women had been running with men for a good 40 years before they were allowed to vote. I like to think MLK saw horses of all colors running together when he crafted one of his noble orations, but he probably didn't. Perhaps the playbill of "Rent" owes something to gender-neutral horses. I do not doubt this.

NFL Draft Thoughts

The Chiefs deserve some kudos, the Jaguars and the Titans do not. How do those teams make the playoffs every year? Do the Titans let uber-coach Jeff Fisher in the draft room? If not, they should.

Pop cultural notes from the last week or two:

1. Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay is damned hilarous, although it didn't really dawn on me how offensive the very principle was until now. I will still add this one to the canon of HBO Sunday Morning movies I will watch most of the time. (Others: Class Act with Kid and Play, Hiding Out with Jon Cryer, High Fidelity with Lisa Bonet, Harold and Kumar go to White Castle with Jon Cho, Just Friends with Ryan Reynolds and The Deuce with sock in hand)

2. I have heard several good albums lately. The new My Morning Jacket is startling. M83's Saturday's = Youth is great if you like The Pyschadelic Furs, which I do. Titus Andronicus is like Rancid mixed with The Arcade Fire with Conor Oberst on vocals. It's rude. The MIB and I approve.

3. The new Real World is pretty sucky, but there is a southern bird who referred to a minority's city of origin (Philadelphia) as "Blacksville". That was not awesome.

4. The New Hold Steady drops on July 15! What exciting times we live in, when one band I like actually puts out CDs every 12-18 months. I'm looking at you, Wilco.

Twins Update

Let's just say I'm okay without renewing the MLB package. When I'd rather watch the Magic-Raptors NBA series, a reasonable person would suggest that the season is rather uninspiring. That and Ron Gardenhire suggesting that walks are overrated. How this guy doesn't find his way onto Fire Joe Morgan once a week is a fucking miracle. If this guy managed the Yankees, they would be razzing him like that kid Lucas that tried to play football in that 80s movie starring Corey Haim as that kid Lucas. That movie is fucking spectacular. I can rattle off five Charlie Sheen movies that I will watch pretty much every time they're on without even thinking about it (Major League, The Chase, Lucas, Hot Shots, Men at Work, Red Dawn. That's Six.)

Musical Instrument of the Week

With a horse week, it's obviously the bugel. It might be my favorite part of horse racing, besides the gamblers and the act of gambling itself.

Horse-by-horse Derby Look
(by post position, odds)
1. Cool Coal Man--20/1--I usually am a sucker for Nick Zito-trained 3 year olds, and I'm glad this bum got the rail (do not bet under any circumstances) so I didn't have to take him. Avoid.

2. Tale of Ekati--15/1--I do not understand why his odds are right here, he's possibly a darkhorse (pun intended) but I can't help but think this is the Barclay Tagg factor. Not sold.

3. Anak Nakal--30/1--No lie, this horse isn't on my radar. What? Go read fucking Hank Goldberg.

4. Court Vision--20/1--Post position and pedigree make Pete likey, but I think he's competing for a piece, not a shot of the title.

5. Eight Belles--20/1--The filly can run fo' sho', but all of these nags can. She'll get bet down for sentimental reasons and then demonstrate why she should have ran the Preakness instead. Nope.

6. Z Fortune--15/1--Impressive sire and a good draw. What's not to like? Consider.

7. Big Truck--50/1--I wouldn't pick this horse in the Gus Fonner Handicap.

8. Visionaire--20/1--I am fucking in. I love the name, the genes, the odds. I will be wagering a large portion of my budget on this one.

9. Pyro--6/1--Was looking like a favorite until he ran 10th out of 12 in his last race. I questioned whether he was a chicken after he laid that egg. Tip your waitresses.

10. Colonel John--4/1--Now here is a favorite I can get behind. Although he's never ran on real dirt. This would be like wagering on a football team that had never played on Field Turf. Probably a bad idea. I still think he factors.

11. Z Humor--30/1--Basically the Fredo Corleone of the Z horses. He'll break your heart.

12. Smooth Air--20/1--I'm not seeing it, but I don't know as much about him as I possibly should. I've never heard of his jockey either.

13. Bob Black Jack--20/1--My favorite name on the board that isn't Visionaire. My favorite horse on the board that isn't every horse but Z Humor and Big Truck.

14. Monba--15/1--My horse buddy tells me this is his pick, but he drinks about 1/2 750 of Jim Beam Black a day. You decide.

15. Adriano--30/1--Worth a long shock look because of his jockey, Edgar "Fast Eddie" Prado, who is no joke.

16. Denis of Cork--20/1--Hales will no doubt bet this horse because of that name. That fucking name. God, it's immaculate. Denis of Cork. Fuck yeah.

17. Cowboy Cal--20/1--A lot of 20/1 horses...I swear to god I thought this horse was called Cowboy Gal until my triple take.

18. Recapturetheglory--20/1--A superstition only I follow: never bet horses with many words ran together into a single word in the Kentucky Derby.

19. Gayego--15/1--Got a real good boost in his last race. Expect the odds to drop. Worth considering but I feel he is a flash in the pan.

20. Big Brown--3/1--Here is your chalk. But goodness, this post position is awful. He's going to have to drop all the way to the rail and make a late charge. I mean that is some doing. He's undefeated, but track record for gallopers with only three races under their belt is awful. Be advised.

What I will be drinking at the derby:

Everything. It's my bachelor party.

Derby Wagers (using a fictional budget of $40)

Below are Pete's Picks. To be perfectly honest, this thing is a 20 horse crapshoot. Picture sperm swimming to fertilize an egg, only with pedigreed, aristocratic horses, big hats, and lot's of intoxicated fratties screaming. Or, if you are at an OTB, like I will be, picture lot's of old people smoking Marlboro's. I think you get the picture.

Wager at your own risk, but if you must follow something, watch what I and Hank Goldberg do, and then somehow combine it. Yeah. That always works.

$5 Across the Board on the #8, Visionaire

$10 Exacta Box #10, Colonel John; and #4, Court Vision

$2 Trifecta Key #10, Colonel John; over #19 Gayego and #8 Visionaire

$1 Straight Trifecta 10-8-4

Hopefully I will be enjoying the Derby with most of the Heavy Soul Crew, and for the rest of you come out to Horseman's Park. We will be the young ones.

Good luck to everyone, and good times.

Labels: Bugels, History Anecdotes, Juleps, Kentucky Derby, Pomp, Sports Wagering

Actually, this sums up most of my feelings exactly, except with more dick jokes.

Labels: Deadspin, Lethargy, NFL Draft, Sports Wagering

With a head of steam coming off of a bye-week, it’s time to get down to business: the business of the SUPER BOWL. The SUPER BOWL combines the best elements of football, gambling, drinking, capitalism, and crockpotted cuisine into one gluttonous Sunday. Why is SUPER BOWL capitalized? Well, that brings me to a trend that I had never noticed until this year.

Apparently, the NFL has copyrighted use of the term Super Bowl. I don’t know if this was done in 1967 or 2005, by Hank Stram or Paul Tagliabue. What it means to you and I are ads exclaiming, “come watch the big game at Hooters,” or “It’s the biggest game of the year, so buy some Clearly Canadian” (Clearly Canadian is good and making a comeback, according to my sources). The NFL has copyrighted words. Advertisers will not say SUPER BOWL. But Pete will write SUPER BOWL in this post at least 12 times. I will keep you all advised on any lawsuits that roll in.

Now, in what was intended to be a post earlier in the week that got derailed by my first-hand Drake basketball experience (they are currently on an 18 game winning streak and ranked 16th nationally. Plus their coach’s first name is Keno, like the gambling activity, so this is relevant. And the circle comes around). I now present you with an abbreviated version of the best NFL teams of all time in this guy’s opinion. Let me say that if the Patriots go on and conquer the Giants to complete the 19-0, they will shoot to the top. They are not listed now because until a team wins a Super Bowl, they cannot be in the discussion.

1. The 1989 49ers. This team had Montana, Rice, and Craig at their absolute peaks, and is perhaps the best offense in NFL history before this year’s Pats. Their defense was a little above NFL average, but they demolished Denver 55-10 in the 1990 Super Bowl and were a juggernaut of epic proportions.

2. The 1967 Packers. This team had like 79 Hall of Famers and Vince Lombardi. Bart Starr. Ray Nitschke. Jerry Kramer. That receiver that was so hungover he almost didn’t play. I love that story.

3. The 1985 Bears. A close third. The best defense either goes to them or the 2000 Ravens. Walter Payton. Singletary. This team had playmakers galore, especially on defense and special teams, featuring North Platte uncle and underrated Tecmo machine Dennis Gentry. Would be first except that Jim McMahon was really not very good, and their best receiver was a better track athlete.

4. The 1978 Steelers. The best team of the 70s. God, I hate the f-ing Steelers. Let’s move on.

5. The 1999 Broncos. This narrowly, and I mean narrowly edged out the 1992 Cowboys, and I’m probably alone on this one, but hear me out. An explosive offense featuring my all time favorite receiver Rod Smith, Terrell Davis, Easy Ed McCaffrey and his youth league shoulder pads, and a destructive offensive line. The defense was stout as well with my least favorite player Bill Romanowski and Trevor Pryce. This team went 14-2 in the regular season and rolled a good Falcons team in the Super Bowl.

Honorable mention goes to the 1992 Cowboys and Gothenburg, NE native Jay Novacek. Like the interesting new band Vampire Weekend, they are pretty fantastic. But they are no Kings of Leon.

Then, here comes a top 5 crockpotted list of Super Bowl foods:

1. Little smokies. 2. Super Bowl dip (You know, the one with like cheese and hamburger meat with taco seasoning) 3. Chili (especially with the Nebraska public school-created concoction with cinnamon rolls, which you can now get at Runza) 4. Spare Ribs (I rocked these for the title game) 5. Beer cheese (dip or soup, all good)

Sentence I hear on Monday after the Super Bowl every year that makes me want to jam a pencil through my ears: “The commercials just weren’t that great this year.” Really, dipshit? That’s because they’re commercials. Watching TV for the commercials is like smoking for the lung cancer. Grow up.

And now, the pick. We are wrapping up another successful playoff season here at Pete’s NFL Picks. A documented 6-4 ATS record. My horoscope says tread lightly, don’t mess up a good thing, and don’t blow your entire profit on the last game of the year. Those astrology folks sure know me. Anyway, onto the pick.

NEW ENGLAND (-12) over The New York Football Giants

New England is clearly the better team here, and since they have reached the summit, they have every motivation to bludgeon the Giants into the turf. I’m not saying the Giants won’t hang in for awhile, but I’m actually, and regrettably, predicting that we are in for a boring game, kiddies. And by boring I mean low-scoring, bad commercials, more eating than watching, and betting the under 53.5 (the bet I really like).

I don’t have a good feel for the spread here, but I do like that under and that is my last bit of football financial advice for this NFL season, but we will be back with a vengeance in September.
New England 31 NYFBG 17

As always, feel free to agree with me in the comments below.

Oh wait, it’s the Super Bowl, and that means prop bets! Here we go, a happy bonus for you lucky bastards:
Top 7 Props
1. Tails
2. Under the National Anthem (Jordin Sparks will be in a hurry to get through it, trust me, she sucks, and I have insider info. Pound it. Thank me now or later.)
3. Tom Petty will play “Free Fallin”.
4. Randy Moss under receptions
5. Brandon Jacobs over carries
6. Pete under 8.5 beers (I'm old and it's a school night)
7. Mayfield, Hales, Delusional KC Fan, GaHill, Toffer, and every other HeavySouler, over 100 little smokies, 3.5 crock pots, 80 beers, 48 prop bets, and under 21.5 discussions involving commercials. (Note, the odds on this are about 1/937)
Long shot: Kevin Boss or Kevin Faulk will score the first TD’s.

Labels: crock pots, Greatest NFL teams, NFL Playoffs, Sports Wagering

From the frozen tundra of Omaha: It’s Friday, the snow is falling, and the tone is solemn around these parts. Not only because of the 45 minutes it will take me to get to work, as opposed to the usual 15, but also due to the sadistic cycle that is the NFL playoffs.

The grim realization that there are only three more games to be had leaves me depressed. Why, 7 days ago, there were seven games left, and 14 days ago there were 11. When you root for the Cleveland fucking Browns, this cycle usually starts about the third week of
September, but this year was different. And it took longer to hit me.

In three more games there will be no more Tom Jackson, three team teaser bets, Tom Brady’s chin-butt, The Chargers (well, it’s not all bad), Cris Collinsworth, Hammerin’ Hank, etc. As an NFL fan, it’s hibernation time with only the occasional NFL’s Greatest Games or Mel Kiper Jr sighting in between naps.

But, let’s kick the mood up a little. If you haven’t yet, go to Deadspin and read the Jamberoo for the week to fire it up. It’s obscene and hilarious and I don’t know why everyone doesn’t enjoy it weekly like I do. I don’t even feel good about linking to it, that’s how tremendous it is.

Other NFL notes:

1. The Green Bay game last week was an exceptional watch. Lambeau, Favre doing Favre stuff, turnovers, points, snow, victory. I give the game a solid 9.7 out of 10 on the entertainment scale in spite of not really even being a close game for the entire second half. That’s what the NFL is all about, cherubs.

2. The Tony Sparano hiring is typical Parcells, and I mean that in a good way. There was absolutely no way he was going to go out and get an alpha dog he was not familiar with to come in and run things. This way, he can exert all the control he feels like without the accountability that comes from being the head coach.

3. Philip Rivers is a dick.

4. The Patriots have really not been much better in the second half of the season than the Chargers. More on this later.

5. The New York Football Giants are now 8-1 on the road. And Eli Manning is their quarterback. Holy hell.

6. I’m not sure how I feel about this 2 and 5:30 starting times of games. I mean it is Sunday and all. Am I supposed to drink during these? Or not? I’m confused. My NFL equilibrium is jacked up.

That about sums it up.

Oh, I’d be remiss not to mention my very profitable 3-1 weekend that included hitting New England -10 and Jacksonville +14, a 3 team teaser, and both the over and Green Bay in that majestic Saturday game. Great times. NFL, we will be sad to see you go.

Let’s take a look at the picks for the conference championships, I’m 5-3 on my Heavy Soul picks and hopefully you dipshits are, too:

San Diego (+14) at NEW ENGLAND

These fucking Chargers are killing me. They are the bane of my existence. A blight on the NFL’s surface. But if the NFL teaches you one thing, it’s: If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em. Well, I’m joining ‘em. And by ‘em, I mean the godforsaken San Diego squad with the douche bag QB, the overrated steroid freak linebacker, Norv Turner, the 11 year old Nate Kaeding, a guy who talks a lot named Igor, and no fewer than three injured superstars.
But Pete, isn’t New England the best team ever? Well, considering the Sports Guy inexplicably compared them ALREADY to the ’86 Celtics, the answer is obviously a resounding yes. But take a look at New England over the 2nd half of the year and then San Diego. I’m not convinced that New England has really been better at all. I’m not going to link to the stats for you, just don’t argue with me in the comments until you’ve inspected them. I won’t hear it.

We’re talking a better defense, an offense that is peaking, and a revenge factor that includes a 38-14 beating this year and a fluke playoff loss last year. I’m not calling for the outright upset, although it wouldn’t shock me, but San Diego gets the check here.

NE 28 SD 20

GREEN BAY (-7) vs. New York Football Giants

Last week, I told you the Packers were going to the Super Bowl. I don’t look so stupid now. Above, I told you about the Giants 8-1 road record. Impressive. Also, I must give props to Chris Berman for the term “New York Football Giants.” Sure, it’s probably overused, maybe even a cliché, but it’s still fantastic.

It’s the NFL, and something’s gotta give. I just checked, and exactly none of the Giants’ road wins came in -20 windchills, and although the Pack got schallacked (I have no idea how to spell the word, even though I say it all the time) in Chicago in awful conditions, I like their running game, I like Favre, and this has all the makings of a magical run.

I cannot define “magical run” but much like Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, “I know it when I see it.” The rules of gambling explicitly state that when a team appears on the cusp of a magical run, and they are giving a touchdown or less at home on frozen tundra against a team that features a weenie for a QB and a secondary that I’m pretty sure Deion Sanders could still play for, you take them. I also humbly feel that there is some value in the over here, but I do not know if I will pick it.

Green Bay 31 NYFG 17

Enjoy the games, and feel free to agree with me in the comments.

Labels: NFL Playoffs, Plenty of money to be made this week comrades, Sad Panda, Sports Wagering

It's 6:15 AM on Friday and I'm coming to you live from my Des Moines penthouse. In a week that has seen its last football gambling opportunity come on Monday (banged LSU and the over) I could hardly contain myself and am now sitting here at 6:15 AM writing up my NFL picks.

Since I just realized Brent Musburger is still calling college hoops for ESPN last night, I am honoring him and the wonderful memories of watching CBS' "NFL Today" with my grandpa in '86, '87, or '88. This pivotal moment was when I first had cognitive recognition of the dark art of the point spread. Brent (if you watch him during any game he makes at least 3 not-so-thinly-veiled references to gambling) and Jimmy the Greek would devolve any salient point that Irv Cross (the 3rd wheel) would make into a gambling discussion.

Then, my grandpa would ask me, at the tender age of 7, "Pete, do you think the Jets can beat the Dolphins today?"

Pete: "Sure, grandpa, the Dolphins suck on the road and if you stop John Offerdahl, the rest of their defense blows. Can I have some more Tang?"

Grandpa: "Thelma, get the kid some more Tang, and make it a real drink this time. Now, Pete, if the Jets had to beat the Dolphins by 5 points, do you think they could do it?"

Pete: "Anyone knows that margin of victory is seldom between 3 and 7 points, and even more rare between 4 and 6, so that means the Jets are set to cut up the Dolphins like GI Joe to Cobra."

And so on. So, for this reason alone, I am dedicating these picks to the venerable Brent Musberger and the NFL Today show of the 1980s.

First, let's recap last week. My picks were 1-2-1, but like the savvy sumbitch I am I waited and got the Steelers at 3 and covered. So I am saying 2-2 on the weekend. Whatever, not bad, not great. I wish Monte Kiffin would have called me and informed me that they would not be putting a pass rush on Eli Manning whatsoever, but he didn't. Anyway, we are 2-2, and on to the picks:

GREEN BAY (-9) over Seattle

Lots of big spreads this week. That's because the home team usually pisspounds the road team coming off of a playoff game last week. Although I believe the dogs covered every spread last year in these games (I just checked, and yes, they did). I expect Green Bay to roll this week. Seattle is a quintessential bridesmaid team, they make the playoffs every year, but never actually win the Super Bowl. I don't like their running game and I think Green Bay is running on them all day.

I think this Green Bay team is like a puppy and an electric fence. They should be scared, but they are too young and stupid to know any better and just run right through anyway. And while they might get shocked initially, they just keep on going. And Brett Favre has been awesome this year. And their D is pretty good. And they can run the ball. And they have a really good kicker. I'm thinking Super Bowl. Green Bay 27, Seattle 17

Jacksonville (+13.5) at NEW ENGLAND

I think Jax matches up well this year (oh, and thanks for the $40, rubes, you know who you are) against New England. They should run the ball with MoJo (one of my Top 3 NFL players) and Freddie Taylor.

New England should win this game, but if they win by 10, or even 13, that is a convincing win, but it won't get them the cover. In the playoffs, it's not about covering, it's about winning. If you get these kind of points and Phil Rivers isn't involved, you take them. I look for a final of about NE 35 Jax 24. Take it to the bank.

INDY (-9) vs. San Diego

I hate the Chargers. There, it's out in the open. I do not think they are a good football team. This is probably my favorite game of the weekend. You take a banged up San Diego team against an Indy team that is rested and has been ignored basically all year due to the Patriots.

Manning will come out early, and often, and light up the Chargers. The Chargers either won't have Gates or he will be a shadow of his former self. If the Colts can keep LT from single handedly destroying them, and I will bet you a Bob Sanders they can, this one won't be close. I think it'll be Indy 31, SD 13.

NY Giants (+7.5) at DALLAS

This is a ridiculous game. I don't really trust either of these teams, and no, I don't care that Tony Romo went to Mexico. Who the hell could blame him for that? Her creep dad is what concerns me. That guy is nuts. He's like a gymnastics coach only weirder.

Anyway, the Giants are a better road team than a home team and the Cowboys have been shaky. This is where we will see the value of Parcells. If he was still at the helm, this ship would be righted. Wade Phillips probably spent the last two weeks playing cribbage against Dick Vermeil. I'm just not buying that this team has the leadership to get through the playoffs. I'm thinking outright upset.

NYG 21, Dal 20

Enjoy the games, everyone. EZT: Call me for an in-depth discussion. Until next week...

Labels: Brent Musberger, Jessica Simpson's creepy fucking dad, NFL Playoffs, Sports Wagering

It's that time of year again, and there is nothing quite like riding a hot streak into the playoffs.

That's right, I have not lost a bet in 2008. After suffering my last setback (congrats EZT) with Clemson on New Year's Eve, I went 3-0 on New Year's Day, then hit West Virginia and Kansas the last two nights. Let's keep this train-a-rollin', folks. On to the picks:

SEATTLE (-4) over Washington

The Seahawks get the check here (that's what Hank Goldberg always says) even though I am rooting for the Redskins. I love Joe Gibbs and think he is a fantastic coach, but I can't back Todd Collins on the road against the toughest crowd in the NFC. I also like the under here. The Seahawks have mailed it in the last few weeks but I like their playoff experience at home against a Redskins team that had to play as hard as they could the last month just to get here. I don't love this play however and may only take the under.

PITTSBURGH (+2) over Jacksonville

Why? Because this has the makings of a classic trap game. Look at that line again. They are begging you to take Jacksonville. Personally, I will take the more playoff experienced team, with the better, more experienced QB, at home on a crappy field, with the raucous crowd. I'm loading up on this game, and going contrarian and fading the public. Sorry Mayfield.

TAMPA BAY (-2.5) over NY Giants

I know the Giants are the popular pick here but Tampa is simply a better team overall. Garcia doesn't take sacks, which will neutralize the G-Men pass rush and Earnest Graham is going to have a big day. Tampa does concern me by not having a lot of explosiveness if they aren't getting the ball to Galloway, which they aren't. If they fall behind, they won't come back. I also think Jacobs will have a big game, but we all know Eli is turning the ball over, it's just a question of when, and to what level of devestation. Again, I really like this play.

Tennessee (+9) over SAN DIEGO

I waffled on this game, but I simply had to decide that Norv Turner and Philip Rivers cannot cover 9 points. By the way, if Kerry Collins starts, that means that both he and Todd Collins will be starting NFL playoff games. I don't know if this can even be processed by my brain. I also disagree that this is better for the Titans, I mean we're talking about Kerry Collins here. I have no idea what's going to happen here. The Sports Guy said that the Titans are basically a worse San Diego, and he's right. Jeff Fisher is smart though, and maybe he can come up with something. If I am having a good week I may not even play this one. Or just play the under. Basically, I picked Tennessee but the last paragraph is fairly pro San Diego. Whatever.

Good luck to all, and we will be back next week regardless with the divisional games. Oh, and I will be watching these somewhere with bar food if anyone cares to join me.

Labels: Good luck to me, NFL Playoffs, Sports Wagering

After inundating myself with at least four hours of caucus coverage last night both on CNN and local TV, all while winning a wager on the Kansas Jayhawks, here is my breakdown of what happened last night in Iowa:

Democrats:

Theme: Hope > experience. Clearly the caucusers (?) chose the more optimistic, inspiring tone of the Obama campaign over the experience-themed Hillary campaign. Once I saw the turnout, I pretty much figured it is going this way. Obama is really getting young people and independents out in droves, and it showed last night. Clinton better hope this is a fluke, but with New Hampshire only 5 days away, I'm not sure that she can turn it around.

Loser: Clinton. I still think she can win New Hampshire, but with a gun to my head I would put my money on Obama at this point. If she loses that and then loses South Carolina (which would theoretically be her worst state) it's probably over. She spent a lot in Iowa and to get third is a kick to the groin (yes, I know, it was intentional).

Treading water: John Edwards. His 2nd place was respectable, and I don't think anyone would have thought he could beat Hillary a month ago, but this was the basket containing all of his eggs, and I think he only goes down from here.

Out: Biden and Dodd. The loss of Biden hurts because he is so ideologically solid on the issues and makes people bring it in debates. Dodd had the firefighters, and I enjoy the show Rescue Me.

Republicans

Theme: Populism dominates. Clearly Huckabee rocked Iowa with a combination of wacko evangelicalism and liberal economics. While this was clearly a huge win and will give his campaign some much needed money, he gets his ass-kicked in New Hampshire because the Republicans there tend to be more libertarian than evangelical, and they won't be having it.

Loser: Romney and Thompson. Thompson is the laziest politician in the history of the United States, even ahead of the 350lb William Howard Taft. He's mailing it in and it shows. I can't stand this guy's sense of entitlement and I just hope he gets his ass kicked everywhere. Romney has literally been in Iowa for about a year, and he had to think he would win or only lose by 3-5% at worst. Well, he got his ass kicked. If McCain beats him in New Hampshire, he could join Edwards.

Treading Water: McCain. He really needs New Hampshire but he has to be happy that Romney isn't taking any momentum from Iowa back east.

Out: For all practical purposes, Ron Paul and Giuliani are done, taking much needed comedy from the Republican race with them.

(Stay tuned for my Wild Card NFL picks this afternoon)

Labels: Caucuses, Politics, Reasons Why Iowa Sucks, Sports Wagering