Thursday, November 20, 2008
Pete's NFL Picks (and delightful tidbits)
Two straight weeks of NFL posts and I feel giddy. While it wasn't exactly a profitable weekend, things could have been substantially worse. We live to play on, and thankfully there is a whole load of material to get us through it. Like Guns N Roses, it's time for a comeback. Like LL Cool J, the best gay rapper alive, don't call it a comeback either. A few things to blow through:
--Call me a conspiracy theorist or whatever, but I am firmly entrenched in the camp that the Steelers-Chargers game was absolutely fixed. Between the time the play ended and the time that the score was changed was certainly enough time for someone in Vegas to call someone in the NFL and get this done. Consider these facts:
1. For some reason, this was the most heavily wagered-on game of the year, according to Vegas sources.
2. This was a $72 million dollar swing-in favor of the books.
3. The NFL (as well as the NCAA, MLB and the NBA) consults with sports-books all the time to keep an eye out for potential shady business.
My point is this: if you were Vegas and you stood to make $72 mil with a Chargers cover, you had contact with high ranking NFL people, and you saw it vanish on a controversial play, you wouldn't at least try to save your ass?
If you're the NFL, and you try like a bastard to avoid anything even remotely acknowledging gambling despite that an estimated 1/3 of your ratings come from gamblers, you wouldn't have incentive to appease one of your main revenue streams? I'm not sayin' I'm just sayin'.
--Tony Romo taking a homeless guy to get the movies is, in a word, awesome. I wouldn't take a homeless guy to the movies, and I'm not the All-Pro QB of the most popular team in the sport with what some (not me) consider to be an amazing looking girlfriend with a really creepy dad. I simply can't hate this guy anymore. I can't. I try. Things went downhill when he helped a couple change a tire on the side of the road after a game. Now this. Fucking guy. You can't make this shit up. I'm sure some cynics will say that these are all stunts, but until proven I'm in the camp that says he's just a genuinely awesome guy. It's not like there's a camera crew making sure every news outlet gets these stories.
--Phil Savage, Browns GM, responding, during the actual Browns-Bills game, to an upset Browns fan: "Go root for Buffalo. Fuck you."
After the Browns season this year, and the cruel reality of me not being able to watch the best Browns game of the year on Monday, nothing would surprise me at this point. Savage could have gone to the emailer's house, ball-gagged him, and banged the guy's wife and I wouldn't have done more than a shoulder shrug at this point. There are, of course, many problems with the Savage-fan discourse, but here's why I'm upset:
1. It was during the game! Why is the Browns' GM even on a computer during a game? Was he watching the ESPN Gamecast like I fucking was? This asshole, who is responsible for all personnel moves for my beloved Browns, is fucking reading message boards while Willie McGinest and Andra Davis (combined age: approximately 78)apply for Medicare and chase after Trent Edwards in wheelchairs. Unbelievable.
2. If I were going to suggest this fan support another team, shouldn't it be a team that is substantially worse than you? That leaves the Lions, Bengals and Chiefs to choose from.
3. If you're going to be a bear, be a grizzly. Phil Savage should channel Randy "Macho Man" Savage and start dishing out flying elbows, and snapping into Slim Jims.
Onto the picks:
RAVENS (-1) over Eagles
I did not even get into the Donovan McNabb story, but I tend to agree with a Whitlock column I read today about how not knowing games could end in ties can't possibly make him a less effective QB. What makes him a less effective QB is that he doesn't have much talent and he works for a stubborn organization.
Also, I've heard rumblings about the NFL needing to eliminate ties and go to a college OT. While I love the college OT, I also love quirky things in sports like pro football games ending in ties once every five years or so. That's awesome. I tied a fantasy game earlier this year and it was much better than if I had won. I bet the Eagles don't feel that way.
Also, take the Ravens.
DOLPHINS (+1.5) over Patriots
In honor of Greg Camarillo, my favorite Italian-Mexican-American receiver, getting a 3 year contract extension, I'm riding his boys this week. I think they are a better team overall than the Pats, they kicked their ass in Foxboro BEFORE New England's entire team went down and they will win a crucial divisional game here. I was dead right about them last week against the Raiders, and I will be here, as well.
Jets (+5) over TENN
The Titans have to not cover one of these, right? Umm, right? I don't think these teams are that far apart actually, and I like the Jets to make it come down to a field goal, one way or another.
Colts/Chargers Under 49
Did Vegas think it was 2006 or something. I'm either walking into one enormous trap or this is absolutely free money.
SAINTS (-1) over Packers
John Q. Public is going to love Green Bay here, while I'm going to sit back and let him bet the Packers into being favorites and come down on the side of the explosive home team getting points indoors at home on Monday night. Green Bay would beat this team 7 or 8 times out of 10 on a neutral site, but this is a tough spot for 'em.
Now, some over/unders for The Deuce's wedding:
The Deuce (1.5) collars on tux outfit
People (33.5) who see a picture of NPGage's new cats
Whiskey cocktails (5.5) consumed by first-ballot wedding Hall of Famer OC, obviously this total does not include beer
Scale from one to 10 on offensiveness of GA's speech (-5.5) (And I'm absolutely taking the unders. Consider that a challenge, GA.)
Congrats, The Deuce.
--Call me a conspiracy theorist or whatever, but I am firmly entrenched in the camp that the Steelers-Chargers game was absolutely fixed. Between the time the play ended and the time that the score was changed was certainly enough time for someone in Vegas to call someone in the NFL and get this done. Consider these facts:
1. For some reason, this was the most heavily wagered-on game of the year, according to Vegas sources.
2. This was a $72 million dollar swing-in favor of the books.
3. The NFL (as well as the NCAA, MLB and the NBA) consults with sports-books all the time to keep an eye out for potential shady business.
My point is this: if you were Vegas and you stood to make $72 mil with a Chargers cover, you had contact with high ranking NFL people, and you saw it vanish on a controversial play, you wouldn't at least try to save your ass?
If you're the NFL, and you try like a bastard to avoid anything even remotely acknowledging gambling despite that an estimated 1/3 of your ratings come from gamblers, you wouldn't have incentive to appease one of your main revenue streams? I'm not sayin' I'm just sayin'.
--Tony Romo taking a homeless guy to get the movies is, in a word, awesome. I wouldn't take a homeless guy to the movies, and I'm not the All-Pro QB of the most popular team in the sport with what some (not me) consider to be an amazing looking girlfriend with a really creepy dad. I simply can't hate this guy anymore. I can't. I try. Things went downhill when he helped a couple change a tire on the side of the road after a game. Now this. Fucking guy. You can't make this shit up. I'm sure some cynics will say that these are all stunts, but until proven I'm in the camp that says he's just a genuinely awesome guy. It's not like there's a camera crew making sure every news outlet gets these stories.
--Phil Savage, Browns GM, responding, during the actual Browns-Bills game, to an upset Browns fan: "Go root for Buffalo. Fuck you."
After the Browns season this year, and the cruel reality of me not being able to watch the best Browns game of the year on Monday, nothing would surprise me at this point. Savage could have gone to the emailer's house, ball-gagged him, and banged the guy's wife and I wouldn't have done more than a shoulder shrug at this point. There are, of course, many problems with the Savage-fan discourse, but here's why I'm upset:
1. It was during the game! Why is the Browns' GM even on a computer during a game? Was he watching the ESPN Gamecast like I fucking was? This asshole, who is responsible for all personnel moves for my beloved Browns, is fucking reading message boards while Willie McGinest and Andra Davis (combined age: approximately 78)apply for Medicare and chase after Trent Edwards in wheelchairs. Unbelievable.
2. If I were going to suggest this fan support another team, shouldn't it be a team that is substantially worse than you? That leaves the Lions, Bengals and Chiefs to choose from.
3. If you're going to be a bear, be a grizzly. Phil Savage should channel Randy "Macho Man" Savage and start dishing out flying elbows, and snapping into Slim Jims.
Onto the picks:
RAVENS (-1) over Eagles
I did not even get into the Donovan McNabb story, but I tend to agree with a Whitlock column I read today about how not knowing games could end in ties can't possibly make him a less effective QB. What makes him a less effective QB is that he doesn't have much talent and he works for a stubborn organization.
Also, I've heard rumblings about the NFL needing to eliminate ties and go to a college OT. While I love the college OT, I also love quirky things in sports like pro football games ending in ties once every five years or so. That's awesome. I tied a fantasy game earlier this year and it was much better than if I had won. I bet the Eagles don't feel that way.
Also, take the Ravens.
DOLPHINS (+1.5) over Patriots
In honor of Greg Camarillo, my favorite Italian-Mexican-American receiver, getting a 3 year contract extension, I'm riding his boys this week. I think they are a better team overall than the Pats, they kicked their ass in Foxboro BEFORE New England's entire team went down and they will win a crucial divisional game here. I was dead right about them last week against the Raiders, and I will be here, as well.
Jets (+5) over TENN
The Titans have to not cover one of these, right? Umm, right? I don't think these teams are that far apart actually, and I like the Jets to make it come down to a field goal, one way or another.
Colts/Chargers Under 49
Did Vegas think it was 2006 or something. I'm either walking into one enormous trap or this is absolutely free money.
SAINTS (-1) over Packers
John Q. Public is going to love Green Bay here, while I'm going to sit back and let him bet the Packers into being favorites and come down on the side of the explosive home team getting points indoors at home on Monday night. Green Bay would beat this team 7 or 8 times out of 10 on a neutral site, but this is a tough spot for 'em.
Now, some over/unders for The Deuce's wedding:
The Deuce (1.5) collars on tux outfit
People (33.5) who see a picture of NPGage's new cats
Whiskey cocktails (5.5) consumed by first-ballot wedding Hall of Famer OC, obviously this total does not include beer
Scale from one to 10 on offensiveness of GA's speech (-5.5) (And I'm absolutely taking the unders. Consider that a challenge, GA.)
Congrats, The Deuce.
Labels: ambiguously raced receivers, fixes, Pete's NFL Picks, Sports Wagering, The Deuc
Friday, November 14, 2008
Pete's NFL Picks-Why not?
After reading the word 'economy' approximately 27 times on the blog this week, it seemed appropriate to talk about the economics of my own personal sports wagering. It has been a very profitable year up to this point for me and hopefully for you, too.
Particularly striking have been covers by very big NFL underdogs. I'm instituting this rule for the rest of the year: If a team is a 10 point or more dog and is not named the Detroit Lions, fire away.
Yesterday, the Jets narrowly avoided, along with the Miami-Va Tech game, two excruciating backdoor covers on one Thursday night. That would have been a terrible way to start the week, but instead I ended up 1 unit.
Given the unexpectedly crappy slate of college games this week, let's get to the NFL picks for this Sunday:
FALCONS (-6.5) over Broncos
The Broncos are one of those teams this year that makes the NFL so unpredictable. Against a team like Cleveland, they have enough firepower to overcome their ungodly sucktastic defense and win some 38-35 type games. Against a team like Atlanta, that can run the ball and has a smart QB, they are in for a double digit loss. I'm not sure why Vegas hasn't had to inflate The ATL's lines yet, but thanks. Also, Atlanta just dismantled, I mean really kicked the shit out of, a Saints team last week that is basically the NFC equivalent of the Donkeys. Atl 28, Denver 17
CHIEFS (+5) over Saints
Vegas is banking on the fact that the public hasn't watched either of these teams in the last three weeks, or that Joe Public is simply looking at the Chiefs win/loss record and taking the team with all the superstars. These are the kind of spots to look for. The young Chiefs are playing well, and it will start to pay off, and I think it starts today. Plus, as A. will attest, Tyler Thigpen is my man. Chiefs 31 Saints 28
GIANTS (-7) over Ravens
This one almost feels like a trap, but there is absolutely no way I'm expecting Joe Flacco, who has been decent, to show up in the Meadowlands and take it to the Giants' defense. I thought there was no way the GMen should have been dogs last week in Philly, so I bet them and bought a 1998 Cavalier. The GMen are playing hard all year and not at all resting on their considerable laurels, and I see no way that Flacco can dissect the intricacies of their pass defense on the road. If it's not a trap, it's a gift. NYFG 24 Baltimore 6
Raiders (+11) over DOLPHINS
With apologies to A., I just don't think that the Dolphins are going to really run it up here. They have a good offense, but it's not exactly built around running up scores. I know the Raiders are terrible, but about one in every four games they show up and spoil the fave party. I'm not saying they win outright, I just don't think the Dolphins are going to need to, or want to, blow this team out. Miami 20 Oakland 14
JAGUARS (+3) over Titans
If Jacksonville has any pride, they catch Tennessee on an off week with not much to play for and blow their doors off. The Bears showed they could stop the Tennessee run, and I liked what I saw last week from MoJo and the Jags. I'm calling for the upset. Jacksonville 23 Tenn 17
Leans toward: Redskins, Steelers, Seahawks, Rams, Vikings, Bengals, Colts, Lions, Bills
Good luck to all, apologies for lack of humor in this post, time constraints.
Particularly striking have been covers by very big NFL underdogs. I'm instituting this rule for the rest of the year: If a team is a 10 point or more dog and is not named the Detroit Lions, fire away.
Yesterday, the Jets narrowly avoided, along with the Miami-Va Tech game, two excruciating backdoor covers on one Thursday night. That would have been a terrible way to start the week, but instead I ended up 1 unit.
Given the unexpectedly crappy slate of college games this week, let's get to the NFL picks for this Sunday:
FALCONS (-6.5) over Broncos
The Broncos are one of those teams this year that makes the NFL so unpredictable. Against a team like Cleveland, they have enough firepower to overcome their ungodly sucktastic defense and win some 38-35 type games. Against a team like Atlanta, that can run the ball and has a smart QB, they are in for a double digit loss. I'm not sure why Vegas hasn't had to inflate The ATL's lines yet, but thanks. Also, Atlanta just dismantled, I mean really kicked the shit out of, a Saints team last week that is basically the NFC equivalent of the Donkeys. Atl 28, Denver 17
CHIEFS (+5) over Saints
Vegas is banking on the fact that the public hasn't watched either of these teams in the last three weeks, or that Joe Public is simply looking at the Chiefs win/loss record and taking the team with all the superstars. These are the kind of spots to look for. The young Chiefs are playing well, and it will start to pay off, and I think it starts today. Plus, as A. will attest, Tyler Thigpen is my man. Chiefs 31 Saints 28
GIANTS (-7) over Ravens
This one almost feels like a trap, but there is absolutely no way I'm expecting Joe Flacco, who has been decent, to show up in the Meadowlands and take it to the Giants' defense. I thought there was no way the GMen should have been dogs last week in Philly, so I bet them and bought a 1998 Cavalier. The GMen are playing hard all year and not at all resting on their considerable laurels, and I see no way that Flacco can dissect the intricacies of their pass defense on the road. If it's not a trap, it's a gift. NYFG 24 Baltimore 6
Raiders (+11) over DOLPHINS
With apologies to A., I just don't think that the Dolphins are going to really run it up here. They have a good offense, but it's not exactly built around running up scores. I know the Raiders are terrible, but about one in every four games they show up and spoil the fave party. I'm not saying they win outright, I just don't think the Dolphins are going to need to, or want to, blow this team out. Miami 20 Oakland 14
JAGUARS (+3) over Titans
If Jacksonville has any pride, they catch Tennessee on an off week with not much to play for and blow their doors off. The Bears showed they could stop the Tennessee run, and I liked what I saw last week from MoJo and the Jags. I'm calling for the upset. Jacksonville 23 Tenn 17
Leans toward: Redskins, Steelers, Seahawks, Rams, Vikings, Bengals, Colts, Lions, Bills
Good luck to all, apologies for lack of humor in this post, time constraints.
Labels: Adam Peterson, Pete's NFL Picks, Sports Wagering
Friday, September 19, 2008
Pete's NFL Picks: Week 3
I'm back. Out of retirement, wearin' the 4-5 like MJ in Madison Square Garden, and I'm ready to help out with everyone's pocketbook.
The decision to take the first two weeks off was done partially out of necessity due to a schedule that has seen the Red Rocket (see above) take more trips up and down I80 than your typical drug mule, but also to sift through the roller-coaster that the NFL can be through the first two weeks of the season.
That's not to say that I haven't found the time to make football wagers, or that the season hasn't been profitable to this point. But a slow immersion seems to be the best approach. Tread lightly. Don't get yourself in a hole when you really get a handle on things.
In many ways, the first two weeks have been like the red rocket. Primarily, they both suck if you're a Cleveland Browns fan. Tip your waitresses.
My divorce letter to Romeo Crennel:
Dear Romeo,
This isn't working anymore. You and me, I mean. Things started off rough, to be sure, with two mediocre seasons. Just when I thought it wasn't going to work out, you swept me off my feet with a 10-6 season and a contract extension. I saw the future, with your talented offense, competent GM and coordinators, and agreed to spend our futures together.
Sure, some of it was physical. With your comedic mustache and bowling ball physique, you quickly won me over. When people would say things like: "Oh my god, Carl Winslow from Family Matters coaches the Browns?" I was there for you.
Now, things can never be the same. Your clock management has never been my favorite attribute of yours, but it's just gotten to the point that you never spend time productively. When you kicked a field-goal down by 21 in the 4th quarter against the Cowboys, I knew things would never change. The very next week, down by 7 with five minutes left, you did the very same thing. You always seem to trust your defense, and you never learn. I don't know if your feelings for Phil Dawson have gotten in the way, and I guess I'll never know. To make things worse, you used all of your timeouts to leave the offense with a mere 26 seconds to get to the end zone. I can't take it anymore.
I'm done, Romeo. I'm leaving. I'm leaving you for the prospects of getting your old enemy, Coach Bill Cowher and his slobbering jaw, to be coach. I wish you all the best as a coordinator somewhere else.
Regards,
Pete
Let's recap what we think we know:
1. Sunday's Dallas-Green Bay game will decide who is the alpha dog in the NFC for the rest of the season.
2. Every team in the NFC East is better than any team in the NFC West.
3. Buffalo and Denver both look like the AFC upstarts, but one of them will likely fall off.
4. New England, San Diego, Pittsburgh and Indy are all playoff-caliber teams, but the separation from the rest of the league is non-existent unlike past years.
5. Tennessee with Vince Young? 8-8. With Kerry Collins? 10-6.
6. The Vikings were all hype, and the Cardinals finally didn't get much and it looks like they deserved more. When you're Super Bowl hopes were riding on a guy that would eventually be replaced with Gus Frerotte after two weeks, you should be fired.
There's probably more, but let's just get on with the picks:
WASHINGTON -3 over Arizona (game of the week)
I'm sure everyone in Arizona is feeling pretty good right now, given the way things are going. What they don't realize is that the Skins rebounded nicely over their opening week disaster and got a solid W over New Orleans last week. Like their namesake, they are leaving Valley Forge and ready to go to war. I always like to look at a team that has played two late games on the West Coast traveling East for an early road game against a good team. I get the feeling that Arizona will look like another team wearing red at the end of this one: the British.
Speaking of George Washington, did you know he was 6'4 and 250 lbs at a time when the average male was like 5 foot, 100? This guy was basically Shaq back then. He is bigger than most NFL linebackers now. Crazy.
Cleveland +1 over BALTIMORE
It might be a homer pick, but this is an absolute must win for the beleaguered Brownies. And let's not kid ourselves, two weeks ago Cleveland would have been favored by 4-7 points. Unlike the previous two games, Joe Flacco isn't going to torch the Browns defense, he can't. But if he does, then fuck me. Seriously.
Cincinnati +13.5 over NY GIANTS
I'm not predicting an upset here, because Cincinnati is fucking terrible, but I refuse to believe that the Giants are going to be really excited for this one and I'm giving Cincy one more chance to put points on the board. I think this number should be in the 7-10 range and I'm gonna roll with it, like Steve Winwood.
GREEN BAY +3 over Dallas
This looks like a trap game, big time. Everyone has seen Dallas in two TV games look amazing, while Green Bay has quietly been doing the same things they did last year. Did you hear they have a new quarterback?
To be sure, this is a premium matchup and the best game of the early season. I can't wait to watch it, and Dallas could win by 20. However, Green Bay has a good secondary and does the things well on offense to beat up on Dallas' defense: zone blocking, pulling linemen, short passing. If you like Green Bay, take a looksy at the under 51 as well, I think they go hand in hand for the check here.
And since we have no Tunnel Walk, how about some quick college plays:
PITT +1 over Iowa (really like this one)
MICH ST -8 over Notre Dame (love this one)
Wyoming +28 over BYU (letdown special)
AUBURN +3 over Lsu (weird line, Steven J. Public will love LSU and get burned)
Georgia -7 over ASU (they need to look good, and they have the talent)
Labels: Cleveland, Pete's NFL Picks, Romeo Crennel, Sports Wagering
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