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Friday, November 14, 2008

Pete's NFL Picks-Why not?

After reading the word 'economy' approximately 27 times on the blog this week, it seemed appropriate to talk about the economics of my own personal sports wagering. It has been a very profitable year up to this point for me and hopefully for you, too.

Particularly striking have been covers by very big NFL underdogs. I'm instituting this rule for the rest of the year: If a team is a 10 point or more dog and is not named the Detroit Lions, fire away.

Yesterday, the Jets narrowly avoided, along with the Miami-Va Tech game, two excruciating backdoor covers on one Thursday night. That would have been a terrible way to start the week, but instead I ended up 1 unit.

Given the unexpectedly crappy slate of college games this week, let's get to the NFL picks for this Sunday:

FALCONS (-6.5) over Broncos
The Broncos are one of those teams this year that makes the NFL so unpredictable. Against a team like Cleveland, they have enough firepower to overcome their ungodly sucktastic defense and win some 38-35 type games. Against a team like Atlanta, that can run the ball and has a smart QB, they are in for a double digit loss. I'm not sure why Vegas hasn't had to inflate The ATL's lines yet, but thanks. Also, Atlanta just dismantled, I mean really kicked the shit out of, a Saints team last week that is basically the NFC equivalent of the Donkeys. Atl 28, Denver 17

CHIEFS (+5) over Saints
Vegas is banking on the fact that the public hasn't watched either of these teams in the last three weeks, or that Joe Public is simply looking at the Chiefs win/loss record and taking the team with all the superstars. These are the kind of spots to look for. The young Chiefs are playing well, and it will start to pay off, and I think it starts today. Plus, as A. will attest, Tyler Thigpen is my man. Chiefs 31 Saints 28


GIANTS (-7) over Ravens
This one almost feels like a trap, but there is absolutely no way I'm expecting Joe Flacco, who has been decent, to show up in the Meadowlands and take it to the Giants' defense. I thought there was no way the GMen should have been dogs last week in Philly, so I bet them and bought a 1998 Cavalier. The GMen are playing hard all year and not at all resting on their considerable laurels, and I see no way that Flacco can dissect the intricacies of their pass defense on the road. If it's not a trap, it's a gift. NYFG 24 Baltimore 6

Raiders (+11) over DOLPHINS
With apologies to A., I just don't think that the Dolphins are going to really run it up here. They have a good offense, but it's not exactly built around running up scores. I know the Raiders are terrible, but about one in every four games they show up and spoil the fave party. I'm not saying they win outright, I just don't think the Dolphins are going to need to, or want to, blow this team out. Miami 20 Oakland 14

JAGUARS (+3) over Titans
If Jacksonville has any pride, they catch Tennessee on an off week with not much to play for and blow their doors off. The Bears showed they could stop the Tennessee run, and I liked what I saw last week from MoJo and the Jags. I'm calling for the upset. Jacksonville 23 Tenn 17

Leans toward: Redskins, Steelers, Seahawks, Rams, Vikings, Bengals, Colts, Lions, Bills

Good luck to all, apologies for lack of humor in this post, time constraints.

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Comments:
Agreed on the Dolphins. Just like last week, the spread is too high. They just aren't that sort of team. They're still in the playing to the level of competition/Chad Pennington's passes hindenburg after more than ten yards phase of their development.

I will now never post on this blog again. Believe me, nobody is as sick of me as I am. I'm very sorry about it.

Christ, I need to find something to do during the workday.
 
I promise you I am more sick of you than you are.

(just jokes, I've enjoyed the banter.)
 
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