Friday, January 04, 2008
Caucus Results/Analysis
After inundating myself with at least four hours of caucus coverage last night both on CNN and local TV, all while winning a wager on the Kansas Jayhawks, here is my breakdown of what happened last night in Iowa:
Democrats:
Theme: Hope > experience. Clearly the caucusers (?) chose the more optimistic, inspiring tone of the Obama campaign over the experience-themed Hillary campaign. Once I saw the turnout, I pretty much figured it is going this way. Obama is really getting young people and independents out in droves, and it showed last night. Clinton better hope this is a fluke, but with New Hampshire only 5 days away, I'm not sure that she can turn it around.
Loser: Clinton. I still think she can win New Hampshire, but with a gun to my head I would put my money on Obama at this point. If she loses that and then loses South Carolina (which would theoretically be her worst state) it's probably over. She spent a lot in Iowa and to get third is a kick to the groin (yes, I know, it was intentional).
Treading water: John Edwards. His 2nd place was respectable, and I don't think anyone would have thought he could beat Hillary a month ago, but this was the basket containing all of his eggs, and I think he only goes down from here.
Out: Biden and Dodd. The loss of Biden hurts because he is so ideologically solid on the issues and makes people bring it in debates. Dodd had the firefighters, and I enjoy the show Rescue Me.
Republicans
Theme: Populism dominates. Clearly Huckabee rocked Iowa with a combination of wacko evangelicalism and liberal economics. While this was clearly a huge win and will give his campaign some much needed money, he gets his ass-kicked in New Hampshire because the Republicans there tend to be more libertarian than evangelical, and they won't be having it.
Loser: Romney and Thompson. Thompson is the laziest politician in the history of the United States, even ahead of the 350lb William Howard Taft. He's mailing it in and it shows. I can't stand this guy's sense of entitlement and I just hope he gets his ass kicked everywhere. Romney has literally been in Iowa for about a year, and he had to think he would win or only lose by 3-5% at worst. Well, he got his ass kicked. If McCain beats him in New Hampshire, he could join Edwards.
Treading Water: McCain. He really needs New Hampshire but he has to be happy that Romney isn't taking any momentum from Iowa back east.
Out: For all practical purposes, Ron Paul and Giuliani are done, taking much needed comedy from the Republican race with them.
(Stay tuned for my Wild Card NFL picks this afternoon)
Democrats:
Theme: Hope > experience. Clearly the caucusers (?) chose the more optimistic, inspiring tone of the Obama campaign over the experience-themed Hillary campaign. Once I saw the turnout, I pretty much figured it is going this way. Obama is really getting young people and independents out in droves, and it showed last night. Clinton better hope this is a fluke, but with New Hampshire only 5 days away, I'm not sure that she can turn it around.
Loser: Clinton. I still think she can win New Hampshire, but with a gun to my head I would put my money on Obama at this point. If she loses that and then loses South Carolina (which would theoretically be her worst state) it's probably over. She spent a lot in Iowa and to get third is a kick to the groin (yes, I know, it was intentional).
Treading water: John Edwards. His 2nd place was respectable, and I don't think anyone would have thought he could beat Hillary a month ago, but this was the basket containing all of his eggs, and I think he only goes down from here.
Out: Biden and Dodd. The loss of Biden hurts because he is so ideologically solid on the issues and makes people bring it in debates. Dodd had the firefighters, and I enjoy the show Rescue Me.
Republicans
Theme: Populism dominates. Clearly Huckabee rocked Iowa with a combination of wacko evangelicalism and liberal economics. While this was clearly a huge win and will give his campaign some much needed money, he gets his ass-kicked in New Hampshire because the Republicans there tend to be more libertarian than evangelical, and they won't be having it.
Loser: Romney and Thompson. Thompson is the laziest politician in the history of the United States, even ahead of the 350lb William Howard Taft. He's mailing it in and it shows. I can't stand this guy's sense of entitlement and I just hope he gets his ass kicked everywhere. Romney has literally been in Iowa for about a year, and he had to think he would win or only lose by 3-5% at worst. Well, he got his ass kicked. If McCain beats him in New Hampshire, he could join Edwards.
Treading Water: McCain. He really needs New Hampshire but he has to be happy that Romney isn't taking any momentum from Iowa back east.
Out: For all practical purposes, Ron Paul and Giuliani are done, taking much needed comedy from the Republican race with them.
(Stay tuned for my Wild Card NFL picks this afternoon)
Labels: Caucuses, Politics, Reasons Why Iowa Sucks, Sports Wagering
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