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Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Nerdy Baseball Posts, cont'd

This was taken from my main man Joe Posnanski's blog, which is not read at least weekly by most baseball fans I know and that is a goddamned travesty, especially among my Royals friends. Essentially he looked at every "action play" in baseball this decade (there have been almost 1.7 million), which would be any pitch that results in something happening, whether it be a strikeout, hit, foulout, hit by pitch, etc.

Then he analyzed the results based on pitch count to get an avg/obp/slugging comparision based on individual results. I will just cut and paste them, but it's very intersting stuff...


Here we go:

First pitch.
Action pitch: 12.5% of the time — one out of every eight at-bats.
Batters hit: .338/.344/.547.

There is probably more grumbling at the park about batters swinging at the first pitch of an at-bat than any other time. The Kansas City Royals once had a prospective owner meet with manager Tony Muser and suggest to him that his batters needed to stop swinging at the first pitch. This, of course, is ludicrous. About one of out every five home runs hit in the game are hit on the first pitch of an at-bat.

Then again, about one out of every five double play grounders you will see are also hit on the first pitch. And that’s why there are so many complaints.

To get this out of the way: The offensive numbers listed above — all the numbers here — can be misleading because they only count balls that were HIT IN PLAY. Foul balls do not count. Swings and misses do not count (except when there are two strikes). Pitches that are called balls do not count (except when there are three balls). And so on. So the batting averages are naturally going to be much less with two strikes. And on-base percentages are going to be much higher with three balls.

Still, there are some cool things to see. There are real advantages, for instance, for batters who put the ball in play early in the count. Once they get two strikes on them, the averages go way down.

Here’s a statistic you can ponder if you like:

OPS for batters putting the first pitch in play: .891
OPS for batters who do not put first pitch in play: .739

So, for someone to decide to never swing at the first pitch … no, that’s probably not the best strategy.

0-1 Count.
Action pitch: 9% of the time — one out of every 11 at-bats.
Batters hit: .317/.326/.485

Well, this was a bit of a surprise to be: Batters would hit quite well when behind one strike. And this gets into what I was saying about hitting early in the count: As you can see, there is not a drastic difference if the batter is hitting behind 0-1 or ahead 1-0.

1-0 Count
Action pitch: 7.6% of the time — one out of every 13 at-bats.
Batters hit .339/.340/.563.

See? Batters do hit with a bit more power when ahead 1-0 — they are also a little bit less aggressive — but the point here is that the game does not shift dramatically to the pitcher until he gets two strikes on a batter. You always hear people say how important it is to get that first pitch strike … and it is hugely important. But getting that second strike is what turns an at-bat around.

0-2 Count
Action pitch: 7.7% of the time — one out of every 13 at-bats.
Batters hit: .162/.173/.236

Now, you can see the pitcher taking control. There are different philosophies about what to do with an 0-2 pitch. There are some pitching coaches and pitchers who think that this is absolutely the time to go for the strikeout pitch … the nasty slider tailing away, the split-fingered fastball in the dirt, the fastball up around the eyes. But there are others — and I tend to agree with this — who think that batters are so defensive at 0-2, that this is perfect time to go get them with a pitch over the plate (especially with pitch counts being SO important in today’s game).

This might be the most amazing statistic in this whole bit: Batters on an 0-2 count hit home runs once every 79 at-bats.*

* My favorite pitcher, Greg Maddux, gave up 11 home runs in his entire career 0-2 — that’s in more than 1,600 at-bats. No, he did not like wasting pitches. Here’s another good Maddux statistic: He only walked 45 batters in his entire career after getting ahead 0-2. Maddux had a 32-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio after he got ahead 0-2.

2-0 Count
Action pitch: 2.7% of the time — one out of every 37 at-bats.
Batters hit: 351/.351/.625

Well, this is a interesting situation … batters very, very rarely put the ball in play on a 2-0 count. In fact, batters don’t put the ball in play much more on a 2-0 count than they do on a 3-0 count. When they connect, though, they do connect hard … batters bang home runs once out of every 16 at-bats.

And you know, if I was a batting coach, I would want my batters to be a bit more aggressive on 2-0. Because here’s something else … pitchers only very, very rarely hit a batter with the count 2-0 (one out of every 179 or so at-bats). That tells me they are simply looking to get a pitch over the plate to get back into the count. It sure seems to me that 2-0 is an underutilized opportunity for hitters.

1-1 Count
Action pitch: 8.8% of the time — one out of every 11 at-bats.
Batters hit: .325/.330/.512

This is more or less a repeat of the first pitch. I have heard scouts and players say that, generally speaking, the most important pitch of the at-bat is the third pitch. And there does seem some truth to that. Most of the time (roughly 54% of the time), batters face a 1-1 count going into the third pitch. And the next pitch will, pretty often, determine the fate of the pitcher and the batter. Look what happens if a pitcher gets a strike:

1-2 Count
Action pitch: 13.6% of the time — one out of every 7 at-bats.
Batters hit: .177/.185/.263

Yes, pitchers are dominant in the 1-2 count. And this is actually the most common situation in baseball … a 1-2 count action pitch. And the batter is all but helpless. But when the third pitch is a ball …

2-1 Count
Action pitch: 5.6% of the time — one out of every 18 at-bats.
Batters hit:.337/.338/.554

Yeah, that’s a sizable difference. Batters hit 160 points better and slug twice as much when that third pitch is a ball rather than a strike. Batters may not know these numbers, but they instinctively know how much their chances go up when the count goes to 2-1.

Here’s a fun experiment: Next time you’re at a game, watch the batter’s reaction when the count goes from 1-1 to 1-2. They will, often, hit their bats with their hands or kick at the dirt or gripe at the umpire. I’ve never counted but I would bet that batters visibly reaction more than half the time.

3-0 Count
Action pitch 2.4% of the time — one of out every 42 at-bats
Batters hit: .390/.958/.780

A few facts about the 3-0 pitch.

1. Batters put the ball in play on 3-0 only about 7% of the time. In fact, over the course of a season, you will only see batters put the ball in play about 300 times on 3-0 … that’s about 10 times per team, per season. it does seem like in today’s game, lots of batters get the green light on 3-0, but the numbers say that you really don’t see them hit the ball on 3-0 very much.

2. When you DO see them hit it, there’s a good chance you will see them hit it a long way. Batters hit 3-0 homers roughly one out of every 10 at-bats.

3. Jim Thome, in his long career, has only put the ball in play 58 times on 3-0. He has hit SIXTEEN home runs. For the record, that’s one homer per every 3.6 at-bats.

4. Or how about Mike Piazza. In his whole career, he only put the ball in play FOUR TIMES on 3-0. That’s all. Four times. Apparently nobody was throwing Piazza a good pitch 3-0. And that was a good idea: Two of them were home runs.

5. Batters almost never get hit on the 3-0 pitch — one out of every 640 plate appearances.

6. Very, very few base runners try to steal on the 3-0 pitch, for obvious reasons, but those that do are ultra-successful — 89%. What’s interesting is that the 3-1 pitch — which has conventionally been called the perfect pitch to steal on — is anything but: Only 61% of base stealers are successful on 3-1.

2-2 Count
Action pitch: 12.9% of the time — one out of every 8 at-bats.
Batters hit: .194/.199/.299

You will often hear announcer say “He evened the count at 2-2.” But there is nothing really even about a 2-2 count. The pitcher is still firmly in control. If a pitcher consistently can make it so the action pitch is always 0-2, 1-2 or 2-2, he will do very nicely for himself and make quite a lot of money.

3-1 Count
Action pitch: 4.9% of the time — one out of every 20 at-bats
Batters hit: .355/.691/.638

Well, here is the ultimate hitter’s pitch … I’ve called a few home runs over the years, wowing friends and impressing strangers, but it’s really not that hard. When you see a good hitter at the plate (or a lousy pitcher on the mound) and a 3-1 count, go ahead, make the call. If you want to play the 3-1 homer game yourself … here are a few good players to consider:

Josh Hamilton: .611/.833/1.167
Chase Utley: .444/.713/.852
Adam Dunn: .392/.777/.908
Alfonso Soriano: .435/.694/.848
Jermaine Dye: .406/.656/.767

Full Count
Action pitch: 12.3% of the time — one out of every 8 at-bats
Batters hit: .229/.468/.381

A couple things interest me here. One, I find it interesting that one out of every eight or so at-bats goes to a full-count. That seems like a lot to me … that means you should see, seven to 10 full counts every single night. I wonder if that number has gone up through the years. I have no idea how to find out.

Also, it really is telling — again and again — that hitters really do swing defensively with two strikes. In total, with two strikes, batters hit .190/.257/.293.

I think that’s one of the takeaway as a baseball fan. Pitchers do not (and should not) give up many two strike hits. And they certainly should not give up two-strike extra base hits.

Another takeaway is that until the pitcher gets two strikes, the advantage* is with the hitter. Batters hit .334 and slug almost .600 when not facing two strikes.

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Thursday, November 06, 2008

The History (and mystery) of the MLB Logo


This Uni Watch article is incredibly interesting--it has interviews with the two men who, at different times, have been credited with designing the Major League Baseball logo.


Once Paul Lukas definitively figures out who designed it, the interview with the guy that did is incredible. Not to mention: how cool would it be to be the guy who came up with one of the most iconic logos in modern history? And on the flipside of that, to be that guy and never get credit for it?


Anyway, it's a great article. Enjoy.

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Monday, May 19, 2008

Our Guy Is Fatter

This week's NL Player of the Week is the Cubs' Alfonso Soriano.

Let's compare Soriano's past week with Lance "Fatman" Berkman's POW week from the previous week:

Berkman: .455 BA, .517 OBP, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 1.136 Slugging, 25 TB

Soriano: .516 BA, .516 OBP, 7 HR, 14 RBI, 1.258 Slugging, 39 TB

Oh, and the Cubs have the 2nd-best record in baseball, with a (for this early in the season) comfy 2.5 games ahead of the Astros.

Eat it.

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Monday, March 31, 2008

Opening Day at Barrett's: A half-assed live blog

3:25: OK, OC, sambuca, and napa have been here since, oh, 11. They've had to refill the Coors Light twice. Welcome to Opening Day!

3:28: Hales informs us that Mark Grudzielanek was signed by the Royals "for his glove, and certainly not his bat."

Grudzy has a .289 career batting average, and 5 seasons have hit over .300--including 2003 with the Cubs, where he received 27 votes for MVP. In other words: Hales makes shit up and tries speaking as though it were fact.

3:35: Looks like the tarp is coming up again at Wrigley. Good times!

3:42: We discuss in what different ways Hales is going to hell. There are a lot of reasons, sadly.

3:57: It's B from Exit 177! A welcome addition. Oh, and Felix Pie just struck out again. Stunning. It's also weird how much he looks like Corey Patterson.

3:49: The Royals are in first place! Alex Gordon with the final put out, not to mention a homer. Oh, and Grudzy went 3-4 with a HBP. Thank God they've got his glove this year.

4:01: Watching the White Sox/Indians game on TV2. The new Indians' uniforms are unbelievably awesome.

4:02: WGN's new HD is...well, put it this way: the highlights of Ernie Banks they showed during the delay looked better. Ugg.

4:04: Prince Fielder's chew in his mouth is about as big as his gut. It's a beautiful thing.

4:12: Forgot to mention: Hales and OC have dirty staches. Hales has been permanently referred to as "Trooper Hales."

4:13: Only the second "Major League" reference of the day: Soriano weakly grounds out to first, followed by a chorus of "who does he think he is, Willie Mays Hayes?" The first one came with the revelation that one of the Royals' pitchers threw a perfect game in the Mexican League last year...which of course was met with "Is that you, Tolbert?"

4:16: D-Lee just ran into Zambrano going for a pop up, which led to Sgt. Hales saying that Lee "will probably get a Columbian neck tie" from Big Z. No one in the room really blinked, and generally accepted it as truth.

4:18: Bill Hall just hit a ball that hit the bottom of the basket in the outfield. Len Kasper lets the viewing audience--desperately looking for commentary--know that "the ball has to be hit exactly like that to hit the bottom of the basket." Looks like Len and Bob are in mid-season form!

4:28: Lame moment of the day: I have to go to class pretty quick. Chances of this live blog continuing after class: 4%. Not too good. Looking forward to seeing everyone blind-drunk when I get back, though. Enjoy the rest of the day!

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Sunday, March 30, 2008

It's Opening Day Eve!

Just like when I was a kid at Christmas, knowing Santa will have come along and left toys by the tree, the anticipation is at a level that is quite high: it's the night before Opening Day!

(Note: I officially hate MLB with their ridiculous "Opening Series-In Japan!," "Opening Night," and then "Opening Day." It's insane. Fire Joe Morgan may not care, but I say that Opening Day should be the same every year: the first game of the year takes place in Cincinatti, as it did for several decades before this "let's have an opening series start in Japan, end in Oakland, but then still market the first night game and the first round of day games like it's the first!")

ANYWAYS, with Opening Day comes another wonderful and honored tradition: running up unimaginable tabs at Barrett's!

It should be another fun day with the Heavy Soul crew at Barrett's--it's supposed to be cold and rainy tomorrow. Where else would you rather hole up and avoid the weather? Not to mention watching a few games of baseball? It's going to be fun, friends.

I believe people will be arriving around 12:30 or so. We will be drinking and dining in the basement of Barrett's. Tiger was nice enough to set it up so we should have it to ourselves, and I believe we arranged to have a few coolers stocked waiting for us.

I hope everyone that can will make it. It wil be another great day, and another fabulous season of Major League Baseball--this year with less steriods!

See you tomorrow.

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